0 Table Mountain Rd · Piñon Hills, CA 92397

$167,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1919 Fair condition 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

RECREATIONAL USE CABIN JUST STEPS FROM MOUNTAIN HIGH SKI RESORT AT MCcLELLAN FLATS!! Cabin #5 is up for sale, and these cabins don't come around very often! THIS IS A LAND LEASE WITH THE USFS, CASH ONLY, with approximately 2 1/2 years left on the existing lease, this is a personal property sale ONLY. Built in the early 1920's for use by the LA County Fire Chiefs in Big Pines, CA, these cabins have stood the test of time and are an example of early land use permits by the Forest Service. All signs indicate another 20 or 30 year lease (no guarantees) with So Cal Edison service and water service that is managed by the association at McClellan Flats (approx. $400 annually). Septic is newer and

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Land lease with usfs
• Full bath

Tags

• LAND LEASE WITH USFS
• NEWER SEPTIC
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• FULL BATH
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FULLY FURNISHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Elevation approximately 7,150 feet; Lot reported between 10,000–19,999 sqft; No common walls; No ADU
• Financial info: Land lease in place (renewal date: December 31, 2028); land lease purchase available; see remarks for lease amount/frequency; Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Part of a community of about 13 units; Community features include watersports, horse trails, rural setting, biking, hiking, fishing, mountainous terrain, BLM/National Forest access, foothills, lake, preserve/public land, park, and hunting

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Driveway (unpaved) with uphill slope from street; On-site parking; Garage with single door and front entry; Total about 7 parking spaces (1 garage, 6 uncovered)
• Security: Smoke detector; Carbon monoxide detector
• Utilities: Standard electric service; Electricity connected; Water available and connected; Septic tank; Water source: see remarks/other
• Home design: Cabin-style property; One story; Faces southwest; Repairs cosmetic; Utility basement
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Stone and rubble foundation with brick and mortar; Year built listed from other source
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Wood deck; Outdoor lighting; Storage building

Interior

• Kitchen: Country kitchen; Refrigerator; Electric oven; Electric stove; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on main level; Main floor bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with bathtub and shower-in-tub
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating (wood-burning fireplace); Electric heating; Fireplace in living room/great room
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Living room balcony; Casement windows; Wood frame windows; Smoke detector; Carbon monoxide detector
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.8% in Piñon Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wrightwood Elementary (344 students, 53% FRL); Serrano High (2,145 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,987 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.90%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-14,921
• Equity at exit: $24,975

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,815
• Equity at exit: $14,482

Cash invested: $46,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92397

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$209 /mo · $2,512/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $167,500

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,875
• Closing costs: $5,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,500 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,500 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,500 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,500 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,500 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,500 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $167,500 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $167,500 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $167,500 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $167,500 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $167,500 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,500 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,383
• − Property taxes: −$2,512
• − Insurance: −$838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,639
• − Management: −$1,639
• − Depreciation: −$4,873
• Taxable loss: −$392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$94
• After-tax cash flow: $2,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This cabin requires moderate repairs and updates to its exterior and interior to improve its curb appeal and resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting or replacement.
• Minor Interior walls — Some discoloration and wear, but not severe.
• Minor Bathtub — Dated and in need of a fresh look.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value.
• Resale Updating countertops and appliances in the kitchen — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and increase the home's value.
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern.
• Resale Reupholstering or replacing furniture — Newer, more stylish furniture can enhance the home's appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and in need of repainting or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior walls · Some discoloration and wear, but not severe.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathtub · Dated and in need of a fresh look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Updating countertops and appliances in the kitchen — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern. ↑
• Resale Reupholstering or replacing furniture — Newer, more stylish furniture can enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowline Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #9157
• State rank: #722 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Piñon Hills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,854
• Population (ZIP): 5,699

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.26%
• Current HPI: 304.3802
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $167,500 CRMLS