109 E Briar Dr · Granite Shoals, TX 78654

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 2021 5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 year old home. Fenced in yard for the pets. Covered patio in the front yard. 3BD/2BA. Open kitchen and living room. Master bedroom on the opposite side of secondary bedroom. Great parks in the City. Lots of public boat ramps. Close to Marble Falls and Kingsland. MFISD. Elementary school in Granite Shoals. Lots of room for parking. Work trailers, vehicles, etc. Owner financing available. Call listing agent for terms.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Fenced in yard
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN KITCHEN AND LIVING ROOM
• LOTS OF ROOM FOR PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured on land; Single-story; Residential property in Granite Castle subdivision
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Composition roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Ice maker; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Recessed lighting
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 1.1% in Granite Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#684 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 752 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.74%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,241
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $9,360
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 752
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $432	+0% $383	+5% $335	+10% $287
Rent	-10% $248	-5% $316	+0% $383	+5% $451	+10% $518
Rate	-1.0pp $454	-0.5pp $419	base $383	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 E Castleshoals Dr Granite Shoals, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,350	$1.32	44d	1	0.23mi
1202 N Mystic Dr Granite Shoals, TX	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,199	$1.57	13d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 421-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $139,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $2,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$605
• After-tax cash flow: $3,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granite Shoals

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #684
• US rank: #12785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granite Shoals, TX
• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8378.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $139,900 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-08-04 Rental Removed $1,550 HLMLS
• 2024-06-16 Listed for Rent $1,550 HLMLS
• 2023-07-27 Rental Removed $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-25 Listed for Rent $1,650 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $177 · +33.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.