114 Ellendale Pl · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$262,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 188 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $178/sqft · 11% below area Est $293k · 11% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*5% lender incentive offered with the use of the seller's in-house lender! Incentive may be used towards buyer closing costs and/or rate buy-down, subject to lender approval and buyer qualification. The Newlin floorplan - This thoughtfully designed single-story home offers a functional open-concept layout ideal for modern living. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the home provides comfortable space for families, guests, or a home office. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and family room, creating a bright and inviting central space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes modern finishes, ample cabinetry, and a breakfast bar for added functionality. The private primary suite is located at the rear of the home and features an en-suite bath with walk-in shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms are positioned at the front of the home for added privacy and flexibility. Additional highlights include energy-efficient construction, a two-car garage, and a desirable location in Fredericksburg with convenient access to shopping, dining, wineries, and the charm of the Texas Hill Country.

Key facts

• Modern finishes
• En-suite bath
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN FINISHES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $262k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($81/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.8% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericksburg El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 744 students, 67% FRL); Fredericksburg Middle (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 684 students, 58% FRL); Fredericksburg H S (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,003 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1323 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 86d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $230,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,236
• List price: $262,000
• Delta: -10.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Ellendale Pl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	4mo	$275,000	$187	95
106 Ellendale Pl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	4mo	$259,500	$176	95
137 Alameda Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	2mo	$254,000	$172	91
163 Juanita Way	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	2mo	$260,999	$177	88
170 Juanita Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	4mo	$270,999	$184	88
109 Ellendale Pl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	3mo	$245,000	$194	72
203 Juanita Way	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	2mo	$279,949	$168	69
168 Juanita Way	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	2mo	$277,999	$167	63
183 Juanita Way	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	3mo	$278,999	$167	62
177 Juanita Way	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	3mo	$277,999	$167	61
189 Juanita Way	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	3mo	$277,999	$167	61
165 Juanita Way	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	5mo	$311,999	$187	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-41,970
• Equity at exit: $39,065

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-35,775
• Equity at exit: $22,653

Cash invested: $73,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.2 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,900 ($253/sqft)
• Median days on market: 188 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -21.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 1323
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,337 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$328 /mo · $3,930/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,329

Max offer price $262,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $97	+0% $7	+5% $-84	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-86	+0% $7	+5% $99	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $73	base $7	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,500
• Closing costs: $7,860
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Ciarans Xing Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,000	$1.34	112d	1	0.08mi
130 Ciarans Xing Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,300	$1.56	143d	1	0.15mi
802 S Creek St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$2,750	$2.45	130d	1	0.25mi
123 Aidan Trl Fredericksburg, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,295	$1.38	74d	1	0.27mi
123 Aidan Trl Fredericksburg, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,295	$1.38	109d	1	0.27mi
127 Aidan Trl Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,200	$1.47	74d	1	0.28mi
703 Dawn Ln Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1309	$2,100	$1.60	10d	1	0.46mi
607 S Columbus St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,995	$1.50	55d	1	0.65mi
1019 Friendship Ln Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	851	$1,362	$1.60	0d	7	0.66mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,500	$1.87	0d	1	0.76mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,500	$1.87	10d	1	0.76mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,950	$2.21	184d	1	0.76mi
915 E Highway St Unit NA Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,950	$1.39	145d	1	0.80mi
501 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	184d	1	0.81mi
501 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,300	$1.64	36d	1	0.81mi
1124 Thiele Ln Unit 200 Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	1.5	1677	$1,500	$0.89	10d	1	0.84mi
810 Apple St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,850	$1.48	55d	1	0.85mi
810 Apple St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,850	$1.48	69d	1	0.85mi
1006 E Highway St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,250	$1.42	184d	1	0.85mi
1004 E Hill St Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	164d	1	0.95mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	138d	1	0.97mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,895	$1.32	164d	1	0.97mi
207 Skylark Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,900	$1.32	10d	1	1.07mi
247 Sunday Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,600	$1.90	85d	1	1.21mi
104 N Elk St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,000	$1.23	152d	1	1.32mi
104 N Elk St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,000	$1.23	125d	1	1.32mi
405 Summit Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	184d	1	1.33mi
202 E Ufer St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,340	$2.36	0d	7	1.34mi
509 Winding Way Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	10d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Friendship Oaks HOA)Quarterly HOA fee of $87.50 covering common area maintenance and grounds maintenanceCommunity features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (covered)Garage parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewerCable availableWater not available
• Home design: One-story homeFaces southwestNew construction
• Construction: Cement sidingComposition roofBuilt by LennarSlab foundationNew construction (year built from public records)
• Exterior features: Private yardLandscaped lotIn-ground sprinklersFew treesPrivacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeDishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (including primary on main level)Additional bedrooms labeled Bedroom 2 and Bedroom 3 on main level
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Natural Gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barMain level primary bedroomWalk-in closet(s)Window features: see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $262,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $262,000 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $262,000 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $262,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $262,000 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $262,000 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $262,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $262,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $262,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $262,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $262,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $262,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $262,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $262,000 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $262,000 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $262,000 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $262,000 Active 171 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    remarks 693-char remark
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $262,000 Active 170 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $262,000 Active 169 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $262,000 Active 168 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $262,000 Active 167 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $262,000 Active 166 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $262,000 Active 165 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    price $262,000 Active 164 DOM
26. 2026-10-15
    days on market $265,500 Active 164 DOM
27. 2026-10-14
    days on market $265,500 Active 163 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    days on market $265,500 Active 162 DOM
29. 2026-10-12
    days on market $265,500 Active 161 DOM
30. 2026-10-11
    days on market $265,500 Active 160 DOM
31. 2026-10-10
    days on market $265,500 Active 159 DOM
32. 2026-10-09
    days on market $265,500 Active 158 DOM
33. 2026-10-08
    days on market $265,500 Active 157 DOM
34. 2026-10-07
    days on market $265,500 Active 156 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $265,500 Active 155 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $265,500 Active 154 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $265,500 Active 153 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $265,500 Active 152 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $265,500 Active 151 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $265,500 Active 150 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $265,500 Active 149 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $265,500 Active 148 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $265,500 Active 147 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $265,500 Active 146 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $265,500 Active 144 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $265,500 Active 143 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $265,500 Active 142 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $265,500 Active 141 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $265,500 Active 140 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $265,500 Active 139 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,676
• − Property taxes: −$3,930
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,244
• − Management: −$2,244
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,622
• Taxable loss: −$4,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,038
• After-tax cash flow: $1,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,370–$22,110 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a functional open-concept layout. It offers a good balance of modern finishes and practicality, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fredericksburg Pri Middle Fredericksburg Middle C- TX #392/1,662 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Fredericksburg H S D- TX #643/1,632 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 28,213 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Friendship Oaks HOA)Quarterly HOA fee of $87.50 covering common area maintenance and grounds maintenanceCommunity features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (covered)Garage parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewerCable availableWater not available
• Home design: One-story homeFaces southwestNew construction
• Construction: Cement sidingComposition roofBuilt by LennarSlab foundationNew construction (year built from public records)
• Exterior features: Private yardLandscaped lotIn-ground sprinklersFew treesPrivacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeDishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (including primary on main level)Additional bedrooms labeled Bedroom 2 and Bedroom 3 on main level
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Natural Gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barMain level primary bedroomWalk-in closet(s)Window features: see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $280,000 LERA
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $280,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $265,000 LERA
• 2026-05-04 Listed $275,000 LERA
• 2026-05-04 Listed $265,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $270,000 LERA
• 2026-01-26 Listed $275,000 LERA
• 2026-01-14 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2025-12-20 Pending — LERA
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $301,999 LERA
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $299,999 LERA
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $287,999 LERA
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $299,999 LERA
• 2025-10-27 Listed $289,999 LERA