Is 40 Franklin Ln Unit A in Crestwood Village, NJ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C with a 6.9% cap rate and $85/mo modeled cash flow at a $165,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 40 Franklin Ln Unit A?

The modeled cap rate is 6.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,112/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C Composite 56.66

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +16.1/30.0
ARV discount +15.0/15.0
1% rule +7.8/10.0
DSCR +5.0/10.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Schools +3.4/10.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$165,000

40 Franklin Ln Unit A · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition 1-car garage $110/sqft · 19% below area Est $203k · 19% under $443/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Move in ready Lexington model lovingly maintained. Open floor plan with plenty of storage space. 2 full baths - with oversized shower in primary bathroom, beautiful laminate floors throughout, and relaxing sunroom as you enter this home. 2 ample bedrooms with plenty of closet space. Great location with private woods in back and over 1500 sq ft of living space. HVAC just 1 yr old. One car garage for convenience and outside patio for cookouts. Oversized laundry with washer, dryer & utility sink.

Key facts

Outside patio
Open floor plan
Private woods

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
Market conditions: 1083 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 91% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $2,112/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.28% ✓
Cap rate: 6.91%
Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
DSCR: 1.10
GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $202,950
List price: $165,000
Delta: -18.70%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26A Franklin Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,596 (+6%)	8mo	$205,000	$128	77
988 B Constitution Blvd	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,565 (+4%)	1mo	$135,000	$86	72
196 Constitution Blvd	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,398 (-7%)	5mo	$168,000	$120	72
70 Franklin Ln	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,363 (-9%)	1mo	$142,500	$105	70
14 A Yorktowne Pkwy	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,545 (+3%)	8mo	$210,000	$136	63
14 Monmouth Ln Unit B	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,545 (+3%)	1mo	$134,900	$87	60
2 Liberty Ct	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,285 (-14%)	5mo	$165,000	$128	58
1-B Pilgrim Ct	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,565 (+4%)	6mo	$163,000	$104	57
11 Woodview Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,613 (+8%)	8mo	$485,000	$301	51
35 Constitution Blvd	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,363 (-9%)	2mo	$172,500	$127	50
74 Chelsea Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,312 (-12%)	2mo	$249,900	$190	43
791 Hudson Pkwy	0.74mi	2/1.5	1,300 (-13%)	2mo	$145,986	$112	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -12.6%
Equity multiple: 0.55×
Total profit: $-20,997
Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

IRR: -3.2%
Equity multiple: 0.78×
Total profit: $-10,049
Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 28 active · 25 under contract
Months of supply: 7.6 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $174,250 ($122/sqft)
Median days on market: 72 d
This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +11.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

Active inventory: 1083
Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,112 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$865
Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
Insurance: −$69
HOA: −$443
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,004

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $142	+0% $85	+5% $28	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $2	+0% $85	+5% $169	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $127	base $85	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $41,250
Closing costs: $4,950
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	84d	1	0.20mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	139d	1	0.20mi
— Lakehurst, NJ	2.0	2.0	1568	$2,300	$1.47	84d	1	0.56mi
54 Constitution Blvd Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1198	$1,325	$1.11	38d	1	0.95mi
16B Ivy Ct Unit A Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,300	$1.49	73d	1	1.14mi
12A Juniper Ln Unit B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	78d	1	1.21mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	112d	1	1.21mi
35 Milford Ave #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1101	$2,500	$2.27	0d	1	1.28mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	99d	1	1.29mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,350	$1.52	116d	1	1.31mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	84d	1	1.31mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: HOA present (Crestwood Village IV)Monthly HOA fee of $443HOA covers common area, lawn maintenance, and snow removalCommunity amenities include a clubhouse; no pool

Exterior

Parking: Attached 1-car garage
Utilities: Public sewer
Home design: Cooperative ownershipModel: LexingtonProperty is attached
Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

Kitchen: Electric range / stoveDishwasherMicrowaveRefrigeratorSelf-cleaning oven
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all on the first floor)
Flooring: Laminate flooring
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Electric heating with baseboard unitsCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Includes washer and dryerBlinds/shadesDishwasherElectric cooking / stoveMicrowaveRefrigeratorSelf/clean (self-cleaning) ovenGarage door openerSunroomLiving roomDining room
Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (in-unit laundry)

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $165,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $165,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $165,000 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $165,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $165,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $165,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $165,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $165,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $165,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $165,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $165,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $165,000 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $165,000 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $165,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $165,000 Active 108 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $165,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $165,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $165,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $165,000 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $165,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-25

pricedays on market $165,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $179,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $179,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $179,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $179,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $179,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $179,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $179,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $179,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $179,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $179,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $179,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $179,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $179,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $179,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $179,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $179,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $179,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $179,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $179,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $179,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $179,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $179,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $179,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $179,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $179,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $179,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $179,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $179,000 Active 64 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,346
− Mortgage interest: −$9,243
− Property taxes: −$2,475
− Insurance: −$825
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
− Management: −$2,028
− HOA: −$5,316
− Depreciation: −$4,800
Taxable loss: −$1,368

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$328
After-tax cash flow: $1,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,500–$22,500 screening

This home is move-in ready with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

Minor landscaping — some overgrown bushes
Minor exterior paint — slight wear on exterior

Value-add opportunities

Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both replace window treatments — improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases value ↑
Both update bathrooms — modernizes the space and increases value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whiting Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Manchester Township School District
NCES district ID: 3409450
Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $38,905
Composite: 28.8/100
National rank: #6662
State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Crestwood Village

Score: 63/100
State rank: #422
US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
County: Ocean · 586,991 people
City population: 34,290
Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
Population (ZIP): 34,290
Household income: $55,000
Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 586,991 people
By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
Current HPI: 274.4679
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Consumer Goods	3	$31B
#281 Kenvue Skillman $15.4B #289 Campbell Soup Camden $9.6B #320 Church & Dwight Ewing $6.1B
Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
#48 Johnson & Johnson New Brunswick $88.8B #65 Merck Rahway $64.2B
Technology	2	$21B
#216 Automatic Data Processing Roseland $19.8B #442 Commvault Systems Tinton Falls $0.9B
Insurance	2	$20B
#411 Arch Capital Group Pembroke $15.2B #459 Selective Insurance Group Branchville $4.9B
Healthcare	2	$19B
#310 Quest Diagnostics Secaucus $9.8B #400 Zoetis Parsippany $9.1B
Financial Services	1	$70B
#62 Prudential Financial Newark $70.4B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-07-10 Price Changed $179,000 MOMLS
2026-05-19 Listed $199,000 MOMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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