15464 Baker Meadow Loop · College Station, TX 77845

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,265 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2015 5,423 sqft lot Est $281k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home located in the desirable Creek Meadows community of South College Station! This home boasts an open floor plan with the kitchen overlooking the living room, 3 bedrooms, and 2 full bathrooms. This home has so much to offer! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• 5,423 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CREEK MEADOWS COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient thermostat
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; HOA covers grounds maintenance; Community pool; Association fee $600 annually (about $50/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Exterior features: Privacy fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,621 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,830
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15472 Baker Meadow Loop	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	0mo	$290,000	$206	79
3809 Clear Meadow Creek Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,261 (-0%)	21mo	$290,000	$230	71
15462 Baker Meadow Loop	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,385 (+10%)	18mo	$284,900	$206	68
3815 Clear Meadow Creek Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-7%)	16mo	$259,900	$222	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-52,550
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-55,879
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77845

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 1168
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$428 /mo · $5,135/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,540

Max offer price $244,402

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15232 Still Water Meadow Loop College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,300	$1.61	43d	1	0.17mi
4206 Carnes Ct S College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,300	$1.25	13d	1	0.25mi
15605 Long Creek Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,400	$1.30	20d	1	0.34mi
15605 Long Creek Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	13d	1	0.34mi
3904 Brownway Ct College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,650	$1.52	44d	1	0.92mi
2301 Norham Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,250	$1.59	13d	1	1.19mi
438 William D Fitch Pkwy College Station, TX	3.0	2.5	1836	$2,900	$1.58	13d	1	1.26mi
2802 Silver Oak Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	43d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 267-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $270,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,135 · $428/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,135 · $428/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 91% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$5,135
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$6,313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,515
• After-tax cash flow: $-224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Station ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807350
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,991
• Composite: 46.54/100
• National rank: #2428
• State rank: #113 of 826 in TX

Livability — College Station

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #994

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: College Station, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 131,628
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 76,764
• Household income: $88,851
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3329.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.31%
• Current HPI: 175.9669
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $270,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,135 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.