109 Millwheel Dr · Villa Rica, GA 30180

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2004 10,672 sqft lot $236/sqft · 27% above area Est $298k · 16% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huge Price Reduction! Looking for space, flexibility, and NO money down? This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite—perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Home features new carpet, all new paint, new back deck and new refrigerator and range. Qualifies for USDA financing.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.0% in Villa Rica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#224 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 669 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13789% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,527 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,835
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -16.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
154 Whetstone Way	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,121 (+6%)	18mo	$205,000	$183	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-56,084
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-71,864
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30180

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,210/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,203

Max offer price $209,785

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-157	+0% $-228	+5% $-298	+10% $-369
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-303	+0% $-228	+5% $-152	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-164	base $-228	+0.5pp $-292	+1.0pp $-358

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9635 Poole Rd Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,739	$1.20	23d	1	0.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 363-char remark

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   Huge Price Reduction! Looking for space, flexibility, and NO money down? This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite—perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Home features new carpet, all new paint, new back deck and new refrigerator and range. Qualifies for USDA financing.

2. 2026-05-04
   historical $1,800

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   Huge Price Reduction! Looking for space, flexibility, and NO money down? This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite—perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Home features new carpet, all new paint, new back deck and new refrigerator and range. Qualifies for USDA financing.

3. 2026-05-04
   status Under Contract 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   Huge Price Reduction! Looking for space, flexibility, and NO money down? This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite—perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Home features new carpet, all new paint, new back deck and new refrigerator and range. Qualifies for USDA financing.

4. 2026-05-04
   historical Active Under Contract 363-char remark

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   Huge Price Reduction! Looking for space, flexibility, and NO money down? This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite—perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Home features new carpet, all new paint, new back deck and new refrigerator and range. Qualifies for USDA financing.

5. 2026-04-25
   price $250,000 363-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Wow! Huge price reduction! This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite-perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Features all new paint, carpet, new back deck, new refrigerator and new range. You will not find something this nice at this price!

6. 2026-04-25
   price $250,000 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Wow! Huge price reduction! This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite-perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Features all new paint, carpet, new back deck, new refrigerator and new range. You will not find something this nice at this price!

7. 2026-04-18
   price $260,000 363-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Wow! Huge price reduction! This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite-perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Features all new paint, carpet, new back deck, new refrigerator and new range. You will not find something this nice at this price!

8. 2026-04-18
   price $260,000 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Wow! Huge price reduction! This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite-perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Features all new paint, carpet, new back deck, new refrigerator and new range. You will not find something this nice at this price!

9. 2026-04-12
   listed $1,800
10. 2026-03-04
    price $274,900 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Wow! Huge price reduction! This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite-perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Features all new paint, carpet, new back deck, new refrigerator and new range. You will not find something this nice at this price!

11. 2026-03-04
    price $274,900 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Wow! Huge price reduction! This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite-perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Features all new paint, carpet, new back deck, new refrigerator and new range. You will not find something this nice at this price!

12. 2026-02-04
    listed $279,900 Active 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Wow! Huge price reduction! This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite-perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Features all new paint, carpet, new back deck, new refrigerator and new range. You will not find something this nice at this price!

13. 2026-02-04
    listed $279,900 New 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Wow! Huge price reduction! This 4-bedroom home in Villa Rica offers a rare layout with a private lower-level suite-perfect for multi-generational living, roommates, or extra income potential. Features all new paint, carpet, new back deck, new refrigerator and new range. You will not find something this nice at this price!

14. 2025-07-01
    historical
15. 2025-07-01
    historical
16. 2025-04-01
    listed $279,900 Active
17. 2025-04-01
    listed $279,900 New
18. 2004-03-25
    soldstatus $412,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,210 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,210 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,210
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,710
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas County
• NCES district ID: 1301860
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $55,335
• Composite: 25.84/100
• National rank: #7353
• State rank: #92 of 174 in GA

Livability — Villa Rica

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #13182

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Villa Rica, GA
• County: Carroll County · 124,888 people
• City population: 43,013
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 43,013
• Household income: $88,514
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 853.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,022 people
• By 2030: 173,956 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 196,859 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 220,017 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 279,831 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 322,702 · +97.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: German 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.4) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +29.6pp toward D · 2008: 1.8pp · 2024: 31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.4 2020: D+25.1 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.97%
• Current HPI: 321.1874
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-99.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-05-04 Rental Removed $1,800 GAMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — FMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $250,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $260,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $260,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed for Rent $1,800 GAMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $274,900 FMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $274,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $279,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $279,900 FMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $279,900 GAMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $279,900 FMLS
• 2004-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $412,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,210 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.