Zapata Plan · Mesquite, TX 75181

$389,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,433 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

None

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 65 days

🏗️ New construction. The $389,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $453,911.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-693 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 590 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $309,311 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.55%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $453,911
• List price: $389,990
• Delta: -14.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2500 Redfield Dr	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,531 (+4%)	3mo	$360,000	$142	70
2225 Hazel Lily Run	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,358 (-3%)	0mo	$414,990	$176	68
1816 Morning Mist Way	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,574 (+6%)	0mo	$516,901	$201	65
2101 Hazel Lily Run	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,495 (+2%)	2mo	$474,000	$190	65
1825 Jasmine June	0.27mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,683 (+10%)	2mo	$529,950	$198	62
2028 Jasper Mdws	0.50mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,538 (+4%)	2mo	$464,373	$183	61
1813 Forest Wood Ln	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,630 (+8%)	1mo	$414,990	$158	52
2400 Buck Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,174 (-11%)	2mo	$309,900	$143	47
1912 Quapaw Trl	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,106 (-13%)	2mo	$359,990	$171	43
1806 Cedar Ridge Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,686 (+10%)	2mo	$345,000	$128	43
2008 Cantura Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,164 (-11%)	1mo	$299,000	$138	38
1712 Quapaw Trl	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,106 (-13%)	3mo	$354,990	$169	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-126,523
• Equity at exit: $67,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-201,130
• Equity at exit: $39,246

Cash invested: $127,095 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,380
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$567 /mo · $6,809/yr
• Insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,971

Max offer price $353,586

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-380	-5% $-536	+0% $-693	+5% $-850	+10% $-1,007
Rent	-10% $-938	-5% $-815	+0% $-693	+5% $-571	+10% $-449
Rate	-1.0pp $-465	-0.5pp $-578	base $-693	+0.5pp $-811	+1.0pp $-931

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,478
• Closing costs: $13,617
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2750	$3,670	$1.33	25d	1	0.43mi
2439 Whitetail Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2484	$2,800	$1.13	25d	1	0.54mi
1809 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,599	$1.29	18d	1	0.67mi
1817 Cedarbriar Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.5	2538	$3,495	$1.38	44d	1	0.75mi
732 Creekview Ct Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	2313	$3,495	$1.51	44d	1	1.03mi
2637 Austin Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$3,350	$1.46	44d	1	1.10mi
2302 Highbank Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,145	$1.20	44d	1	1.14mi
2621 Ash Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,299	$1.25	44d	1	1.15mi
815 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,500	$1.40	44d	1	1.17mi
1226 Rivercrest Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	3221	$3,970	$1.23	2d	1	1.18mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,280	$1.08	21d	1	1.20mi
2725 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2228	$3,199	$1.44	2d	1	1.23mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	8d	1	1.24mi
1704 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	2726	$2,900	$1.06	19d	1	1.26mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	25d	1	1.27mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	25d	1	1.29mi
2812 Clearmeadow Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,800	$1.52	2d	1	1.30mi
2338 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,300	$1.30	21d	1	1.33mi
2321 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,460	$1.21	8d	1	1.33mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	44d	1	1.33mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	22d	1	1.33mi
2329 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	3094	$2,575	$0.83	8d	1	1.34mi
2329 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	3094	$2,801	$0.91	22d	1	1.34mi
1615 Ariel Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2002	$3,200	$1.60	2d	1	1.38mi
2124 Amber Spgs Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$3,049	$1.56	13d	1	1.42mi
1521 Cool Springs Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,295	$1.19	25d	1	1.42mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,119	$1.18	3d	1	1.43mi
2136 Walden Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,250	$1.32	44d	1	1.44mi
2008 Birch Bnd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,799	$1.77	8d	1	1.46mi
2705 Hidden Springs Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1656	$2,280	$1.38	3d	1	1.46mi
1626 Rancho Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2562	$2,419	$0.94	25d	1	1.48mi
3013 Timber Ridge Ln Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	3072	$3,599	$1.17	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,990 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,990 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,990 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,990 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,990 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,990 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,990 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,990 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,990 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $389,990 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,990 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,990 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,990 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,990 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    listed $389,990 Active 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,426
• − Property taxes: −$6,809
• − Insurance: −$2,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,969
• − Management: −$2,969
• − Depreciation: −$13,205
• Taxable loss: −$16,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,967
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the landscaping is attractive. The highest-ROI updates would be painting, landscaping, kitchen and bathroom updates, HVAC system upgrade, and smart home integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Both Smart home integration — Adding smart home features can increase convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Adding smart home features can increase convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $389,990 Zillow