Zapata Plan · Mesquite, TX 75181

$389,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,433 sqft · SingleFamily · 117 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

None

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 116 days

🏗️ New construction. The $389,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $441,932.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gentry El (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 637 students, 79% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $304,673 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,932
• List price: $389,990
• Delta: -11.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1412 Casting Rdg	0.31mi	4/4.0	2,575 (+6%)	1mo	$498,900	$194	73
1868 Night Owl Way	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,541 (+4%)	2mo	$419,490	$165	71
3212 Cantura Dr	0.25mi	4/3.5	2,706 (+11%)	0mo	$368,900	$136	69
2021 Jasper Mdw	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,541 (+4%)	1mo	$399,590	$157	68
2101 Lone Oak Trl	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,480 (+2%)	1mo	$469,000	$189	67
2225 Hazel Lily Run	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,358 (-3%)	2mo	$414,990	$176	66
1816 Morning Mist Way	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,574 (+6%)	2mo	$516,901	$201	64
1821 Jade Forest Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,291 (-6%)	1mo	$433,999	$189	61
1740 Osage Trl	0.70mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,330 (-4%)	0mo	$374,999	$161	55
1813 Forest Wood Ln	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,630 (+8%)	3mo	$414,990	$158	51
2025 Osage Trl	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,155 (-11%)	1mo	$349,990	$162	48
2008 Cantura Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,164 (-11%)	3mo	$299,000	$138	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-121,511
• Equity at exit: $65,893

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-192,470
• Equity at exit: $38,210

Cash invested: $123,741 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 196 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 25.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $411,494 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 194 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,318
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$552 /mo · $6,629/yr
• Insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $-647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,866

Max offer price $348,285

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-342	-5% $-494	+0% $-647	+5% $-800	+10% $-953
Rent	-10% $-888	-5% $-768	+0% $-647	+5% $-527	+10% $-406
Rate	-1.0pp $-425	-0.5pp $-535	base $-647	+0.5pp $-762	+1.0pp $-878

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,483
• Closing costs: $13,258
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2750	$3,670	$1.33	73d	1	0.43mi
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2558	$3,195	$1.25	7d	1	0.43mi
2508 Hawk Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,525	$1.43	0d	1	0.52mi
2439 Whitetail Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2484	$2,800	$1.13	73d	1	0.54mi
2201 Cantura Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2432	$2,700	$1.11	48d	1	0.56mi
2324 Cantura Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2190	$2,500	$1.14	34d	1	0.61mi
1809 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,599	$1.29	66d	1	0.67mi
1817 Cedarbriar Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.5	2538	$3,495	$1.38	93d	1	0.75mi
1608 Willow Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1934	$2,323	$1.20	7d	1	0.99mi
732 Creekview Ct Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	2313	$3,495	$1.51	93d	1	1.03mi
2637 Austin Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$3,350	$1.46	93d	1	1.10mi
808 Creekside Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1886	$2,200	$1.17	3d	1	1.13mi
2008 Cheshire Ct Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2003	$3,675	$1.83	38d	1	1.13mi
1421 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2828	$2,725	$0.96	0d	1	1.14mi
2302 Highbank Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,145	$1.20	93d	1	1.14mi
2621 Ash Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,299	$1.25	93d	1	1.15mi
1349 Rutherford Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1968	$2,095	$1.06	25d	1	1.16mi
815 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,500	$1.40	93d	1	1.17mi
1226 Rivercrest Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	3221	$3,970	$1.23	0d	1	1.18mi
2338 Liles Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2344	$2,400	$1.02	7d	1	1.19mi
2404 Liles Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2323	$3,999	$1.72	1d	1	1.20mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,230	$1.06	13d	1	1.20mi
2725 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2228	$3,199	$1.44	12d	1	1.23mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	3d	1	1.24mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	57d	1	1.24mi
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,395	$1.34	21d	1	1.25mi
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,450	$1.37	38d	1	1.25mi
1704 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	2726	$2,900	$1.06	67d	1	1.26mi
2801 Clearmeadow Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2241	$2,095	$0.93	13d	1	1.27mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	73d	1	1.27mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	48d	1	1.29mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	73d	1	1.29mi
2812 Clearmeadow Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,250	$1.22	30d	1	1.30mi
2338 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,300	$1.30	70d	1	1.33mi
2321 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,460	$1.21	57d	1	1.33mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	93d	1	1.33mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	71d	1	1.33mi
1707 Rosbury Ct Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2320	$2,900	$1.25	0d	1	1.34mi
2329 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	3094	$2,575	$0.83	57d	1	1.34mi
2329 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	3094	$2,801	$0.91	71d	1	1.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $389,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Zapata plan (new construction)
• Exterior features: Located in Solterra Texas Community, Mesquite, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $389,990 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $389,990 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $389,990 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $389,990 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $389,990 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $389,990 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $389,990 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $389,990 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $389,990 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $389,990 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $389,990 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $389,990 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $389,990 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $389,990 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $389,990 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $389,990 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $389,990 Active 94 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $389,990 Active 93 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $389,990 Active 92 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $389,990 Active 91 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $389,990 Active 90 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $389,990 Active 89 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $389,990 Active 88 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $389,990 Active 87 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $389,990 Active 85 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $389,990 Active 84 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $389,990 Active 83 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $389,990 Active 82 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $389,990 Active 81 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $389,990 Active 80 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $389,990 Active 79 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $389,990 Active 78 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $389,990 Active 77 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $389,990 Active 76 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $389,990 Active 74 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $389,990 Active 72 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $389,990 Active 70 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $389,990 Active 69 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $389,990 Active 66 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $389,990 Active 65 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $389,990 Active 64 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $389,990 Active 63 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $389,990 Active 61 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $389,990 Active 60 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $389,990 Active 57 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,990 Active 56 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,990 Active 55 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $389,990 Active 52 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,990 Active 51 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,990 Active 50 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,755
• − Property taxes: −$6,629
• − Insurance: −$2,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,925
• − Management: −$2,925
• − Depreciation: −$12,856
• Taxable loss: −$15,739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,777
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the landscaping is attractive. The highest-ROI updates would be painting, landscaping, kitchen and bathroom updates, HVAC system upgrade, and smart home integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Adding smart home features can increase convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gentry El F TX #1,769/4,322 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Berry Middle D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Horn H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 29% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $389,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Zapata plan (new construction)
• Exterior features: Located in Solterra Texas Community, Mesquite, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)