142 Millwheel Dr · Villa Rica, GA 30180

$277,700

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,787 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2005 $155/sqft · 9% below area Est $304k · 9% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside this lovely 4 bedroom, 3 bath home in Villa Rica and you will find neutral floors and paint throughout, a fireplace and vaulted ceilings in the living room, primary bedroom with ensuite bath and more. Stop in for a showing and see it for yourself.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2005
• Listed 75 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Villa Rica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#224 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 653 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,141 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,672
• List price: $277,700
• Delta: -8.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Millwheel Dr	0.00mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,787 (0%)	1mo	$277,700	$155	94
109 Millwheel Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	1,606 (-10%)	1mo	$250,000	$156	78
5017 Grist Mill Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,694 (-5%)	1mo	$305,000	$180	71
207 Millwheel Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (-4%)	11mo	$285,000	$165	66
3430 Laurel Springs Cv	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,756 (-2%)	16mo	$275,000	$157	64
3405 Cascade Trl	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,892 (+6%)	6mo	$277,500	$147	56
9433 Poole Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (+4%)	22mo	$329,900	$178	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-55,398
• Equity at exit: $41,406

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-65,154
• Equity at exit: $24,010

Cash invested: $77,756 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30180

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,456
• Tax from tax record: −$345 /mo · $4,135/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,463

Max offer price $252,388

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,425
• Closing costs: $8,331
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9635 Poole Rd Villa Rica, GA	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,739	$1.20	22d	1	0.04mi
9695 Poole Rd Villa Rica, GA	5.0	3.0	2253	$2,345	$1.04	2d	1	0.14mi
9455 Poole Rd Villa Rica, GA	4.0	3.5	2135	$2,200	$1.03	24d	1	0.32mi
3395 Woodlake Ln Villa Rica, GA	4.0	2.5	2204	$1,995	$0.91	43d	1	0.33mi
3495 Laurel Springs Cv Villa Rica, GA	3.0	3.0	2204	$2,075	$0.94	43d	1	0.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Under Contract 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   Step inside this lovely 4 bedroom, 3 bath home in Villa Rica and you will find neutral floors and paint throughout, a fireplace and vaulted ceilings in the living room, primary bedroom with ensuite bath and more. Stop in for a showing and see it for yourself.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $277,700 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   Step inside this lovely 4 bedroom, 3 bath home in Villa Rica and you will find neutral floors and paint throughout, a fireplace and vaulted ceilings in the living room, primary bedroom with ensuite bath and more. Stop in for a showing and see it for yourself.

3. 2026-04-17
   price $282,000 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   Step inside this lovely 4 bedroom, 3 bath home in Villa Rica and you will find neutral floors and paint throughout, a fireplace and vaulted ceilings in the living room, primary bedroom with ensuite bath and more. Stop in for a showing and see it for yourself.

4. 2026-03-20
   price $286,200 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   Step inside this lovely 4 bedroom, 3 bath home in Villa Rica and you will find neutral floors and paint throughout, a fireplace and vaulted ceilings in the living room, primary bedroom with ensuite bath and more. Stop in for a showing and see it for yourself.

5. 2026-03-04
   price $290,600 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   Step inside this lovely 4 bedroom, 3 bath home in Villa Rica and you will find neutral floors and paint throughout, a fireplace and vaulted ceilings in the living room, primary bedroom with ensuite bath and more. Stop in for a showing and see it for yourself.

6. 2026-02-18
   listed $295,000 New 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   Step inside this lovely 4 bedroom, 3 bath home in Villa Rica and you will find neutral floors and paint throughout, a fireplace and vaulted ceilings in the living room, primary bedroom with ensuite bath and more. Stop in for a showing and see it for yourself.

7. 2021-10-07
   soldstatus $1,558,200
8. 2021-06-04
   soldstatus $240,000
9. 2021-06-01
   soldstatus $240,000 Closed 573-char remark

   Show marketing remark (573 chars)

   WELCOME HOME! AWESOME TWO STORY IN WEATHERSTONE WITH HUGE YARD. ACROSS THE STREET FROM POOL AND TENNIS. FOYER WITH SPINDLED STAIRCASE LEADS TO VAULTED GREAT ROOM WITH FIREPLACE WITH GAS LOGS. SEPARATE DINING ROOM WITH HARDWOOD FLOORS. KITCHEN WITH TONS OF CABINETS, PANTRY AND LEADS TO THE DECK. OVERSIZED MASTER WITH BAY WINDOW. MASTER BATH WITH DOUBLE VANITY, SEPARATE TUB, SHOWER AND CLOSET. GUEST BEDROOMS ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF HOME. BOTH GOOD SIZED AND SHARE A BATH IN THE HALL. LARGE FINISHED ROOM IN BASEMENT WITH FULL BATH COULD BE USED AS 4TH BED OR BONUS ROOM.

10. 2021-04-28
    status Pending 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    WELCOME HOME! AWESOME TWO STORY IN WEATHERSTONE WITH HUGE YARD. ACROSS THE STREET FROM POOL AND TENNIS. FOYER WITH SPINDLED STAIRCASE LEADS TO VAULTED GREAT ROOM WITH FIREPLACE WITH GAS LOGS. SEPARATE DINING ROOM WITH HARDWOOD FLOORS. KITCHEN WITH TONS OF CABINETS, PANTRY AND LEADS TO THE DECK. OVERSIZED MASTER WITH BAY WINDOW. MASTER BATH WITH DOUBLE VANITY, SEPARATE TUB, SHOWER AND CLOSET. GUEST BEDROOMS ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF HOME. BOTH GOOD SIZED AND SHARE A BATH IN THE HALL. LARGE FINISHED ROOM IN BASEMENT WITH FULL BATH COULD BE USED AS 4TH BED OR BONUS ROOM.

11. 2021-04-21
    historical Active Under Contract 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    WELCOME HOME! AWESOME TWO STORY IN WEATHERSTONE WITH HUGE YARD. ACROSS THE STREET FROM POOL AND TENNIS. FOYER WITH SPINDLED STAIRCASE LEADS TO VAULTED GREAT ROOM WITH FIREPLACE WITH GAS LOGS. SEPARATE DINING ROOM WITH HARDWOOD FLOORS. KITCHEN WITH TONS OF CABINETS, PANTRY AND LEADS TO THE DECK. OVERSIZED MASTER WITH BAY WINDOW. MASTER BATH WITH DOUBLE VANITY, SEPARATE TUB, SHOWER AND CLOSET. GUEST BEDROOMS ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF HOME. BOTH GOOD SIZED AND SHARE A BATH IN THE HALL. LARGE FINISHED ROOM IN BASEMENT WITH FULL BATH COULD BE USED AS 4TH BED OR BONUS ROOM.

12. 2021-04-15
    listed $245,000 Active 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    WELCOME HOME! AWESOME TWO STORY IN WEATHERSTONE WITH HUGE YARD. ACROSS THE STREET FROM POOL AND TENNIS. FOYER WITH SPINDLED STAIRCASE LEADS TO VAULTED GREAT ROOM WITH FIREPLACE WITH GAS LOGS. SEPARATE DINING ROOM WITH HARDWOOD FLOORS. KITCHEN WITH TONS OF CABINETS, PANTRY AND LEADS TO THE DECK. OVERSIZED MASTER WITH BAY WINDOW. MASTER BATH WITH DOUBLE VANITY, SEPARATE TUB, SHOWER AND CLOSET. GUEST BEDROOMS ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF HOME. BOTH GOOD SIZED AND SHARE A BATH IN THE HALL. LARGE FINISHED ROOM IN BASEMENT WITH FULL BATH COULD BE USED AS 4TH BED OR BONUS ROOM.

13. 2016-02-10
    price $94,000
14. 2015-06-04
    price $107,250
15. 2014-10-09
    price $94,000
16. 2014-07-11
    soldstatus $107,300
17. 2014-07-08
    historical
18. 2014-06-30
    soldstatus $107,250 Sold
19. 2014-06-30
    soldstatus $107,250 Sold
20. 2014-06-26
    status Under Contract
21. 2014-06-26
    listed $107,250 Back On Market
22. 2014-06-18
    status Pending
23. 2014-06-18
    soldstatus $107,250 Sold
24. 2014-06-16
    price $107,250
25. 2014-06-10
    listed $94,000 New
26. 2014-06-10
    listed $94,000 Active
27. 2011-12-19
    soldstatus $67,900
28. 2011-12-13
    historical
29. 2011-12-08
    soldstatus $67,900 Sold
30. 2011-11-06
    status Pending
31. 2011-10-27
    historical Contingent - Due Diligence
32. 2011-09-29
    listed $65,000 Active
33. 2011-09-07
    historical
34. 2011-09-01
    status Pending
35. 2011-08-31
    soldstatus $45,675 Sold
36. 2011-08-19
    historical
37. 2011-06-25
    price $60,000
38. 2011-06-24
    price $60,000
39. 2011-05-20
    price $64,900
40. 2011-05-19
    price $64,900
41. 2011-04-20
    listed $69,900 Active
42. 2010-10-12
    price $69,000
43. 2010-09-18
    price $72,000
44. 2010-09-08
    price $79,000
45. 2006-07-13
    soldstatus $139,000
46. 2003-09-16
    soldstatus $405,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,135 · $345/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,135 · $345/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,556
• − Property taxes: −$4,135
• − Insurance: −$1,388
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,190
• − Management: −$2,190
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,079
• Taxable loss: −$6,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,562
• After-tax cash flow: $-157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas County
• NCES district ID: 1301860
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $55,335
• Composite: 25.84/100
• National rank: #7353
• State rank: #92 of 174 in GA

Livability — Villa Rica

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #13182

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Villa Rica, GA
• County: Carroll County · 124,888 people
• City population: 43,013
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 43,013
• Household income: $88,514
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 853.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,022 people
• By 2030: 173,956 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 196,859 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 220,017 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 279,831 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 322,702 · +97.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: German 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.4) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +29.6pp toward D · 2008: 1.8pp · 2024: 31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.4 2020: D+25.1 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.97%
• Current HPI: 321.1874
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-31.4% since first listed

46 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $277,700 GAMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $282,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $286,200 GAMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $290,600 GAMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $295,000 GAMLS
• 2021-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,558,200 Public Records
• 2021-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-01 Sold (MLS) $240,000 FMLS
• 2021-04-28 Pending — FMLS
• 2021-04-21 Contingent — FMLS
• 2021-04-15 Listed $245,000 FMLS
• 2016-02-10 Price Changed $94,000 FMLS
• 2015-06-04 Price Changed $107,250 FMLS
• 2014-10-09 Price Changed $94,000 GAMLS
• 2014-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $107,300 Public Records
• 2014-07-08 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2014-06-30 Sold (MLS) $107,250 GAMLS
• 2014-06-30 Sold (MLS) $107,250 FMLS
• 2014-06-26 Pending — GAMLS
• 2014-06-26 Listed $107,250 GAMLS
• 2014-06-18 Pending — FMLS
• 2014-06-18 Sold (MLS) $107,250 GAMLS
• 2014-06-16 Price Changed $107,250 GAMLS
• 2014-06-10 Listed $94,000 GAMLS
• 2014-06-10 Listed $94,000 FMLS
• 2011-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $67,900 Public Records
• 2011-12-13 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2011-12-08 Sold (MLS) $67,900 FMLS
• 2011-11-06 Pending — FMLS
• 2011-10-27 Contingent — FMLS
• 2011-09-29 Listed $65,000 FMLS
• 2011-09-07 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2011-09-01 Pending — FMLS
• 2011-08-31 Sold (MLS) $45,675 FMLS
• 2011-08-19 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2011-06-25 Price Changed $60,000 GAMLS
• 2011-06-24 Price Changed $60,000 FMLS
• 2011-05-20 Price Changed $64,900 GAMLS
• 2011-05-19 Price Changed $64,900 FMLS
• 2011-04-20 Listed $69,900 FMLS
• 2010-10-12 Price Changed $69,000 GAMLS
• 2010-09-18 Price Changed $72,000 GAMLS
• 2010-09-08 Price Changed $79,000 GAMLS
• 2006-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $405,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,135 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.