18439 Old Oasis Rd · Redding, CA 96003

$179,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1959 0.71 ac lot Est $314k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Another Price Reduction!!! Motivated sellers--Bring an offer!! House needs work, but there is almost an acre of potential. Will probably have to be a cash buyer and is to be sold as is. Kerosene heater included in sale.

Key facts

• 0.71 acre lot
• Built 1959
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; 220V available in laundry
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Raised foundation; Composition roof; Built recently (year not specified)
• Exterior features: City lot, level; Asphalt road access; No pool

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl and wood flooring; Wood burning stove / fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $180k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.05%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,920
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18311 Oasis Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (+8%)	12mo	$338,000	$218	58
12051 Norma Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$255,000	$190	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,184
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $65,486
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $823/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $424	+0% $373	+5% $322	+10% $271
Rent	-10% $184	-5% $279	+0% $373	+5% $467	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $464	-0.5pp $419	base $373	+0.5pp $326	+1.0pp $279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4288 Bradley Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	21d	1	1.05mi
6053 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	14d	1	1.10mi
6073 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	14d	1	1.12mi
5391 Stonethrow Ct Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $179,900 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   status $179,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $179,900 Pending 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    status Active
15. 2026-04-16
    status Pending
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $199,900 Active
17. 2023-08-17
    status Active
18. 2023-08-16
    historical
19. 2023-08-14
    status Pending
20. 2023-07-04
    status Active
21. 2023-06-02
    status Pending
22. 2023-05-29
    status Active
23. 2023-05-28
    status Pending
24. 2023-05-25
    price $175,000
25. 2023-04-19
    price $199,000
26. 2023-03-11
    listed $225,000 Active
27. 2014-08-13
    soldstatus $65,000 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Another Price Reduction!!! Motivated sellers--Bring an offer!! House needs work, but there is almost an acre of potential. Will probably have to be a cash buyer and is to be sold as is. Kerosene heater included in sale.

28. 2014-08-13
    soldstatus $65,000

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Another Price Reduction!!! Motivated sellers--Bring an offer!! House needs work, but there is almost an acre of potential. Will probably have to be a cash buyer and is to be sold as is. Kerosene heater included in sale.

29. 2014-04-16
    listed $85,000 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Another Price Reduction!!! Motivated sellers--Bring an offer!! House needs work, but there is almost an acre of potential. Will probably have to be a cash buyer and is to be sold as is. Kerosene heater included in sale.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $823 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,367 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$545/yr (+$45/mo · 66.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$823
• − Insurance: −$6,018
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,292
• − Management: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $1,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$461
• After-tax cash flow: $4,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+135.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-04-16 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-03-26 Listed $199,900 SAOR
• 2023-08-17 Relisted — SAOR
• 2023-08-16 Delisted — SAOR
• 2023-08-14 Pending — SAOR
• 2023-07-04 Relisted — SAOR
• 2023-06-02 Pending — SAOR
• 2023-05-29 Relisted — SAOR
• 2023-05-28 Pending — SAOR
• 2023-05-25 Price Changed $175,000 SAOR
• 2023-04-19 Price Changed $199,000 SAOR
• 2023-03-11 Listed $225,000 SAOR
• 2014-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-13 Sold (MLS) $65,000 SAOR
• 2014-04-16 Listed $85,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $823 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.