2694 Ellicott Rd · Fowlerville, NY 14423

$58,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 1984 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pride in ownership, yard has private seating areas with several mature trees & perennial beds. Easy access with wooden ramp to deck. Small gate to keep small pets close. 3 bedrooms with 1 bedroom currently used as a walk-in pantry for additional storage. 2 full bathrooms, main bathroom reno with​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ upgrades.

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Expansive yard
• Elevated deck

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• ACCESSIBILITY-FRIENDLY RAMP
• ELEVATED DECK
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $572

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story (1 story); Existing home; Built by Fairmont
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Fairmont model; Double wide body type
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch; Gravel driveway; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Eat-in kitchen; Living/dining room; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary; Primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,114 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• York Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #403 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $404 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $58k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $58,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.54%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $32,480
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2694 Ellicott Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	20mo	$33,000	$29	84
2699 James Way	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	985 (-12%)	2mo	$28,000	$28	67
2650 Ellicott Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	980 (-12%)	9mo	$40,000	$41	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $22,309
• Equity at exit: $8,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $60,406
• Equity at exit: $5,058

Cash invested: $16,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14423

• Home prices YoY: -12.0%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,143 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$307
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$73 /mo · $878/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $512

Max offer price $58,500

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $539	-5% $519	+0% $499	+5% $479	+10% $458
Rent	-10% $409	-5% $454	+0% $499	+5% $544	+10% $589
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $514	base $499	+0.5pp $484	+1.0pp $468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,625
• Closing costs: $1,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,500 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,500 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,500 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,500 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $58,500 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $58,500 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,500 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,500 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $58,500 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,277
• − Property taxes: −$878
• − Insurance: −$292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$1,702
• Taxable income: $5,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,290
• After-tax cash flow: $4,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, paint the exterior, and replace the carpeting. These improvements would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor HVAC system — may need cleaning or minor repairs

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen and bathrooms — modernizing these areas would significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both paint exterior — fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value
• Both replace carpeting — new flooring would enhance the living space and increase appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
HVAC system · may need cleaning or minor repairs	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen and bathrooms — modernizing these areas would significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both paint exterior — fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both replace carpeting — new flooring would enhance the living space and increase appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631950
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $58,572
• Composite: 41.9/100
• National rank: #3366
• State rank: #403 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fowlerville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1114
• US rank: #22859

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,829

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,466 people
• By 2030: 61,966 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 58,398 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 54,955 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 49,958 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 43,944 · -30.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.4) · D 39.3% · R 60.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -21.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.4 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.47%
• Current HPI: 245.11
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+98.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $58,500 UNYREIS
• 2024-10-29 Sold (MLS) $33,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-10-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-10-22 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $39,500 UNYREIS
• 2024-10-07 Listed $29,500 UNYREIS