27 Smith St · Locust Grove, GA 30248

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1925 0.50 ac lot $123/sqft · 34% below area Est $242k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 1 bathroom fixer upper located just off of Highway 42 in downtown Locust Grove. Would make ideal potential commercial property for things such as an office building, hair salon, etc. Storage building included for additional storage for whatever business you can imagine!

Key facts

• Storage building
• Commercial property
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
• STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.1% in Locust Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#315 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $3k; list at $160k implies a 5718% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.13%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,598
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -33.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
88 Smith St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,275 (-2%)	7mo	$239,900	$188	85
111 Gwenellen Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,342 (+4%)	8mo	$243,000	$181	76
110 Ridge St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,381 (+7%)	6mo	$230,000	$167	73
106 Gwenellen Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+3%)	10mo	$242,800	$181	72
89 Indian Creek Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,376 (+6%)	22mo	$150,000	$109	61
107 Gwenellen Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+11%)	12mo	$244,900	$170	60
67 Rosser Ln	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+8%)	14mo	$200,000	$143	54
105 Gwenellen	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+9%)	24mo	$275,000	$195	53
45 Fuller Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+4%)	15mo	$219,900	$163	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,612
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $36,572
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,447

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $581	-5% $535	+0% $490	+5% $445	+10% $400
Rent	-10% $327	-5% $408	+0% $490	+5% $572	+10% $653
Rate	-1.0pp $571	-0.5pp $531	base $490	+0.5pp $449	+1.0pp $407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
141 Colony Park Ln Locust Grove, GA	3.0	3.0	1769	$1,931	$1.09	25d	1	0.37mi
1002 Allegiance Dr Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	1584	$1,900	$1.20	2d	1	0.41mi
730 Patriots Point St Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,100	$1.14	21d	1	0.43mi
206 Nadia Ct Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,785	$1.15	25d	1	0.80mi
308 Kellys Walk Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,810	$1.37	0d	1	1.28mi
125 Waters Edge Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,825	$1.38	25d	1	1.29mi
329 Kellys Walk Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,769	$1.14	3d	1	1.33mi
163 Brentwood Ln Locust Grove, GA	4.0	3.0	1602	$1,650	$1.03	44d	1	1.34mi
805 Price Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$2,283	$2.27	0d	73	1.39mi
805 Price Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$2,475	$2.46	24d	187	1.40mi
1320 Elmstead Pl Locust Grove, GA	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2245	$2,104	$0.94	0d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2025-07-29
    status Back On Market
15. 2025-07-29
    historical
16. 2025-07-18
    status Under Contract
17. 2025-07-11
    status Back On Market
18. 2025-07-07
    status Under Contract
19. 2025-05-21
    status Back On Market
20. 2025-05-05
    status Under Contract
21. 2025-04-30
    historical
22. 2025-02-05
    price $169,900
23. 2025-02-05
    price $179,900
24. 2024-12-11
    price $185,000
25. 2024-11-06
    price $199,900
26. 2024-09-18
    listed $160,000 New 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bathroom fixer upper located just off of Highway 42 in downtown Locust Grove. Would make ideal potential commercial property for things such as an office building, hair salon, etc. Storage building included for additional storage for whatever business you can imagine!

27. 2024-09-18
    listed $249,900 New

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bathroom fixer upper located just off of Highway 42 in downtown Locust Grove. Would make ideal potential commercial property for things such as an office building, hair salon, etc. Storage building included for additional storage for whatever business you can imagine!

28. 1963-01-01
    soldstatus $2,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,850 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,850 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $3,574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$858
• After-tax cash flow: $5,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Locust Grove

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #17034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Locust Grove, GA
• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 36,038
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+6078.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-29 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-07-18 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-07-11 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-07-07 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-05-21 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-05-05 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $169,900 GAMLS
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $185,000 GAMLS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $199,900 GAMLS
• 2024-09-18 Listed $249,900 GAMLS
• 2024-09-18 Listed $160,000 GAMLS
• 1963-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $2,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,850 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.