348 State Route 104b · Mexico, NY 13114

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2003 3.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLERS ARE ASKING FOR ALL OFFERS TO BE IN BY 4/19/26 at 10am. Space, privacy, and versatility all come together at this home! Set on 3.25 acres, this impressive 2,128 sq ft 4-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and room to grow. Step inside to a large kitchen featuring abundant cabinetry, a built-in wall oven and microwave, and a seamless flow into the dining room—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious living room provides a bright and welcoming atmosphere, while an additional family room with a cozy gas fireplace offers the perfect spot to relax and unwind. The oversized primary suite is truly a retreat, complete with a private bath, gard

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Private bath
• Large kitchen

Tags

• 3.25 ACRES
• LARGE KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• BUILT-IN WALL OVEN
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-354 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (31.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.1% in Mexico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#756 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mexico Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #540 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $132,535 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.59%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $86,343
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $272,070
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13114

• Home prices YoY: 18.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,236/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $137,326

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,236 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,307 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$71/yr (+$6/mo · 2.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,236
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,272
• − Management: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$7,889
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,893
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexico Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,635
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5691
• State rank: #540 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mexico

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #756
• US rank: #14489

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,313
• Population (ZIP): 7,313

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.65%
• Current HPI: 327.6719
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $199,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,236 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.