22715 N Mazatlan Dr · Sun City West, AZ 85375

$360,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,693 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1996 10,533 sqft lot $213/sqft · 17% below area Est $436k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BIG PRICE ADJUSTMENT!! The home you've been waiting for is finally here. Nestled in one of the most desirable neighborhoods in Sun City West. This unique ''island'' community is surrounded by a stunning golf course, where every resident takes pride in their home and enjoys the best of Sun City living. This popular two-bedroom floor plan offers comfort, style, and exceptional value. Don't miss your chance to see it in person today!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-428 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#106 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 791 students, 59% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $360k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,477 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $435,594
• List price: $360,000
• Delta: -17.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22703 N Mazatlan Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,717 (+1%)	4mo	$410,000	$239	89
15137 W Black Gold Ln	0.22mi	2/2.5	1,825 (+8%)	2mo	$500,000	$274	73
15363 W Black Gold Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,547 (-9%)	2mo	$389,000	$251	67
15352 W Blackgold Ln	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,854 (+10%)	3mo	$489,000	$264	67
15219 W Vía Manana --	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,786 (+6%)	2mo	$413,000	$231	63
15173 W Via Manana --	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,614 (-5%)	2mo	$345,000	$214	62
15331 W Ganado Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,872 (+11%)	4mo	$432,000	$231	62
15240 W Via Montoya --	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,778 (+5%)	0mo	$385,000	$217	62
15303 W Gunsight Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,872 (+11%)	0mo	$420,000	$224	58
14840 W Corral Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,922 (+14%)	3mo	$389,000	$202	53
14617 W Las Brizas Ln	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,824 (+8%)	3mo	$459,900	$252	48
14645 W Via Manana --	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,858 (+10%)	5mo	$365,000	$196	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-76,004
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-58,404
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85375

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,305 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,847

Max offer price $284,333

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-225	-5% $-326	+0% $-428	+5% $-530	+10% $-632
Rent	-10% $-610	-5% $-519	+0% $-428	+5% $-337	+10% $-246
Rate	-1.0pp $-247	-0.5pp $-337	base $-428	+0.5pp $-522	+1.0pp $-617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15136 W Corral Dr Sun City West, AZ	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,100	$1.13	16d	1	0.16mi
15138 W Las Brizas Ln Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1842	$2,895	$1.57	19d	1	0.17mi
15438 W Domingo Ln Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,950	$1.36	0d	1	0.54mi
14759 W Gunsight Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1348	$1,599	$1.19	23d	1	0.60mi
14759 W Gunsight Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1348	$1,699	$1.26	45d	1	0.60mi
14608 W Horizon Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1778	$2,000	$1.12	45d	1	0.76mi
21601 N 147th Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1269	$2,695	$2.12	19d	1	0.94mi
14668 W Soft Wind Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1794	$1,995	$1.11	45d	1	1.04mi
14234 W Via Tercero Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1653	$2,500	$1.51	45d	1	1.11mi
22520 N Via de la Caballa Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1438	$3,400	$2.36	18d	1	1.25mi
15707 W Cimarron Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1183	$1,745	$1.48	23d	1	1.30mi
14113 W Robertson Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1410	$3,800	$2.70	45d	1	1.34mi
20813 N 147th Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1733	$4,500	$2.60	16d	1	1.44mi
21640 N Casa Royale Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1894	$2,195	$1.16	18d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $360,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $360,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $360,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $360,000 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    BIG PRICE ADJUSTMENT!! The home you've been waiting for is finally here. Nestled in one of the most desirable neighborhoods in Sun City West. This unique ''island'' community is surrounded by a stunning golf course, where every resident takes pride in their home and enjoys the best of Sun City living. This popular two-bedroom floor plan offers comfort, style, and exceptional value. Don't miss your chance to see it in person today!

16. 2026-03-17
    price $380,000 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    BIG PRICE ADJUSTMENT!! The home you've been waiting for is finally here. Nestled in one of the most desirable neighborhoods in Sun City West. This unique ''island'' community is surrounded by a stunning golf course, where every resident takes pride in their home and enjoys the best of Sun City living. This popular two-bedroom floor plan offers comfort, style, and exceptional value. Don't miss your chance to see it in person today!

17. 2026-02-18
    listed $400,000 Active 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    BIG PRICE ADJUSTMENT!! The home you've been waiting for is finally here. Nestled in one of the most desirable neighborhoods in Sun City West. This unique ''island'' community is surrounded by a stunning golf course, where every resident takes pride in their home and enjoys the best of Sun City living. This popular two-bedroom floor plan offers comfort, style, and exceptional value. Don't miss your chance to see it in person today!

18. 2005-04-29
    soldstatus $229,900
19. 1996-11-13
    soldstatus $134,175

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,535 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,535 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥113°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,213
• − Management: −$2,213
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$11,741
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sun City West

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #14878

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City West, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 27,680
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,680
• Household income: $63,928
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.20%
• Current HPI: 239.3422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+168.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $360,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $380,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $400,000 ARMLS
• 2005-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $229,900 Public Records
• 1996-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $134,175 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,535 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.