3809 Morning Dove Ct · Indian River Estates, FL 34952

$104,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 208 Days on market

Built 2000 5,200 sqft lot Est $176k · 41% under $309/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 2 bedroom/2 bath home located in the spectacular Savanna Club, a resort style 55+ community. This partial furnished fixer-upper home is ready for you to make your own. There are three clubhouses all with heated pools and fitness centers. Golf course on site and is surrounded with a beautiful landscape.

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• Soft-close cabinetry
• Upgraded appliances

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• QUARTZITE COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• UPGRADED APPLIANCES
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (breed and number limits may apply)
• Financial info: Monthly land lease (lot rent) required
• HOA & community: Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool (heated), spa/hot tub, sauna, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, bocce ball, putting green, golf course, basketball court, billiard room, business center, library, cafe/restaurant, manager on site, internet included, cable TV, and trash service; Monthly association fee (includes cable TV, internet, trash, common areas, reserve funds)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; One covered space; One carport space; Driveway; Total 2 parking spaces
• Security: Closed-circuit cameras; Security patrol
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Underground utilities; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Entry-level living area; Home faces northwest
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Modular construction; Composition/shingle roof; Built as resale
• Exterior features: Open patio; Screened porch; Patio; Shed(s); Interior lot; Paved road frontage; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Other
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Stacked bedroom layout; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 5.3% in Indian River Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#653 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $722 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.25%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,760
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3788 Satinwood Ct	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,090 (+5%)	2mo	$150,000	$138	64
2999 Saltbush Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	8mo	$176,000	$169	64
8506 Redbay Ct	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,036 (-0%)	6mo	$193,000	$186	63
7912 Black Tern Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,107 (+6%)	8mo	$120,500	$109	62
3422 Feriwinkle Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,184 (+14%)	4mo	$205,000	$173	54
3316 Ironwood Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,134 (+9%)	10mo	$208,500	$184	53
8513 Redbay Ct	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	21mo	$138,000	$133	50
2816 Eagles Nest Way	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,134 (+9%)	7mo	$146,000	$129	47
2975 Fiddlewood Cir	0.74mi	2/2.0	936 (-10%)	5mo	$207,500	$222	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $18,714
• Equity at exit: $15,581

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $56,723
• Equity at exit: $9,035

Cash invested: $29,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$548
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,969/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$309
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,348

Max offer price $104,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,125
• Closing costs: $3,135
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	23d	1	0.50mi
1131 SE Parrish Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	23d	1	1.09mi
2209 SE East Dunbrooke Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$2,950	$2.43	13d	1	1.12mi
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	23d	1	1.13mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	13d	15	1.22mi
2130 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	13d	1	1.26mi
2058 SE Wild Meadow Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.5	1425	$2,200	$1.54	13d	1	1.27mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	13d	6	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $309 · $3,708/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,500 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,500 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,500 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,500 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,500 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,500 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $104,500 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $116,900 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $116,900 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $116,900 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $116,900 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $116,900 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $116,900 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $116,900 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $116,900 Active 190 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $116,900 Active 189 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    price $116,900
18. 2026-02-05
    price $124,900
19. 2025-11-22
    listed $134,900 Active
20. 2025-10-14
    historical
21. 2025-09-30
    price $117,500
22. 2025-09-01
    price $125,000
23. 2025-06-30
    listed $135,000 Active
24. 2021-11-24
    soldstatus $94,000
25. 2021-11-10
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Great 2 bedroom/2 bath home located in the spectacular Savanna Club, a resort style 55+ community. This partial furnished fixer-upper home is ready for you to make your own. There are three clubhouses all with heated pools and fitness centers. Golf course on site and is surrounded with a beautiful landscape.

26. 2021-06-03
    historical Active Under Contract 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Great 2 bedroom/2 bath home located in the spectacular Savanna Club, a resort style 55+ community. This partial furnished fixer-upper home is ready for you to make your own. There are three clubhouses all with heated pools and fitness centers. Golf course on site and is surrounded with a beautiful landscape.

27. 2021-05-16
    price $65,000 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Great 2 bedroom/2 bath home located in the spectacular Savanna Club, a resort style 55+ community. This partial furnished fixer-upper home is ready for you to make your own. There are three clubhouses all with heated pools and fitness centers. Golf course on site and is surrounded with a beautiful landscape.

28. 2021-04-26
    listed $75,000 Active 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Great 2 bedroom/2 bath home located in the spectacular Savanna Club, a resort style 55+ community. This partial furnished fixer-upper home is ready for you to make your own. There are three clubhouses all with heated pools and fitness centers. Golf course on site and is surrounded with a beautiful landscape.

29. 2019-07-09
    historical
30. 2019-03-05
    price $65,000
31. 2018-09-30
    price $69,900
32. 2018-08-28
    listed $74,900 Active
33. 2017-10-12
    historical
34. 2017-05-04
    price $63,000
35. 2017-02-04
    price $68,000
36. 2016-11-01
    price $72,000
37. 2016-10-14
    listed $78,000 Active
38. 2014-10-30
    historical
39. 2013-09-22
    historical
40. 2003-12-08
    soldstatus $8,500,000
41. 2003-02-24
    soldstatus $84,500
42. 2003-02-18
    soldstatus $69,500
43. 2003-01-18
    historical
44. 2002-12-04
    listed $72,500
45. 2001-09-27
    listed $72,000
46. 2001-04-19
    listed $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,969 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,969 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,854
• − Property taxes: −$1,969
• − Insurance: −$522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − HOA: −$3,708
• − Depreciation: −$3,040
• Taxable income: $6,036
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,449
• After-tax cash flow: $5,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian River Estates

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #12946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 27,447
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+62.4% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $116,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $124,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-22 Listed $134,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $117,500 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $125,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-06-30 Listed $135,000 Beaches MLS
• 2021-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-10 Sold (MLS) $60,000 Beaches MLS
• 2021-06-03 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2021-05-16 Price Changed $65,000 Beaches MLS
• 2021-04-26 Listed $75,000 Beaches MLS
• 2019-07-09 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2019-03-05 Price Changed $65,000 Beaches MLS
• 2018-09-30 Price Changed $69,900 Beaches MLS
• 2018-08-28 Listed $74,900 Beaches MLS
• 2017-10-12 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2017-05-04 Price Changed $63,000 Beaches MLS
• 2017-02-04 Price Changed $68,000 Beaches MLS
• 2016-11-01 Price Changed $72,000 Beaches MLS
• 2016-10-14 Listed $78,000 Beaches MLS
• 2014-10-30 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2013-09-22 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2003-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $8,500,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records
• 2003-02-18 Sold (MLS) $69,500 Beaches MLS
• 2003-01-18 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2002-12-04 Listed $72,500 Beaches MLS
• 2001-09-27 Listed $72,000 Beaches MLS
• 2001-04-19 Listed $72,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,969 · -25.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.