2626 Holly Hall St #409 · Houston, TX 77054

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 664 sqft · Condo public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1984 $113/sqft · 18% below area Est $91k · 18% under $285/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

1 Bedroom / 1 Bath unit for lease on Holly Hall off Almeda, minutes from the medical center. Fully remodeled recently, ground floor, No stairs to climb. Comes with refrigerator + in-unit Washer and Dryer. New tile floor and granite countertop in kitchen. New wood flooring in living / dining/ corridor/ bedroom. Remodeled bathroom with new faucet, shower/tub and granite countertop. Tiled backyard space for BBQ.

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• Remodeled bathroom
• Ground floor

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• GROUND FLOOR
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• NEW TILE FLOOR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOP
• REMODELED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association name: Feld; Monthly association fee of $285; Association fee includes water and sewer; Association amenities: Pool, Gated; Community features: Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Controlled entrance
• Security: Security gate; Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2 total stories; Built in 1984; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Community pool (association); Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on first floor (approx. 14x12)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Soaking tub; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Seller disclosure
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-678/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $65k (13.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cullen Middle (math 6% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 324 students, 100% FRL); Yates H S (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 851 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 7795% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $75k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,013 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,189
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -17.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-18,651
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,021
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77054

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,559/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$285
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $65,013

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14	-5% $-35	+0% $-57	+5% $-78	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-99	+0% $-57	+5% $-14	+10% $28
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-37	base $-57	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2750 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	704	$850	$1.21	2d	12	0.17mi
8401 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	694	$1,265	$1.82	24d	1	0.19mi
8380 El Mundo St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$964	$1.35	2d	28	0.21mi
8383 El Mundo St Unit 1174 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	737	$1,188	$1.61	11d	1	0.21mi
8383 El Mundo St Unit 8457 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	737	$1,187	$1.61	11d	1	0.21mi
8383 El Mundo St Unit 1148 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	737	$1,145	$1.55	3d	1	0.21mi
8383 El Mundo St Apt 321 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	737	$1,148	$1.56	8d	1	0.21mi
8383 El Mundo St Unit 8404 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	737	$1,297	$1.76	14d	1	0.21mi
8383 El Mundo St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	737	$1,292	$1.75	14d	1	0.27mi
7901 Cambridge St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	529	$1,150	$2.17	44d	6	0.49mi
7901 Cambridge St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	432	$1,100	$2.55	22d	5	0.49mi
2117 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	654	$1,000	$1.53	24d	1	0.49mi
2256 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	706	$947	$1.34	22d	1	0.52mi
2256 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	706	$947	$1.34	18d	1	0.52mi
7373 Ardmore St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$1,165	$1.06	5d	24	0.56mi
8282 Cambridge St Unit 8333 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$764	$1.27	13d	1	0.56mi
8282 Cambridge St Unit 8356 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$772	$1.28	3d	1	0.56mi
8282 Cambridge St Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$775	$1.29	8d	1	0.56mi
8282 Cambridge St Unit 8303 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$815	$1.35	14d	1	0.56mi
8282 Cambridge St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$810	$1.35	14d	1	0.58mi
1800 El Paseo St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$802	$1.07	2d	39	0.64mi
2111 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	974	$699	$0.72	3d	30	0.65mi
9000 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,350	$1.46	1d	12	0.66mi
7100 Almeda Rd Unit 1047 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	575	$824	$1.43	11d	1	0.79mi
7110 Ardmore St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$1,663	$2.00	3d	19	0.80mi
7100 Almeda Rd Unit 7121 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	575	$781	$1.36	3d	1	0.80mi
7100 Almeda Rd Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	575	$784	$1.36	8d	1	0.80mi
7100 Almeda Rd Unit 7121 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	575	$859	$1.49	15d	1	0.80mi
7100 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	575	$773	$1.34	13d	1	0.80mi
7009 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,207	$1.16	1d	22	0.86mi
7892 Knight Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1002	$1,659	$1.66	3d	14	0.86mi
8181 Fannin St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,327	$1.65	2d	33	0.90mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,103	$1.56	13d	1	0.95mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Unit 2849 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	633	$1,149	$1.82	14d	1	0.96mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Unit 1112 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,111	$1.57	3d	1	0.96mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Unit 2849 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,153	$1.63	11d	1	0.96mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Unit 2879 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	633	$1,144	$1.81	44d	1	0.97mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Apt 323 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,114	$1.57	8d	1	0.97mi
2950 Old Spanish Trl Unit 321 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$1,360	$2.00	8d	1	0.98mi
2950 Old Spanish Trl Unit 2971 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$1,280	$1.88	44d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $285 · $3,420/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-04-23
    listed $75,000 Active 412-char remark
13. 2025-10-31
    historical
14. 2025-05-20
    listed $95,000 Active
15. 2025-03-04
    historical
16. 2025-03-04
    historical $945
17. 2025-02-07
    listed $945
18. 2024-12-21
    listed $95,000 Active
19. 2015-11-25
    soldstatus
20. 2015-11-24
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2015-11-20
    historical
22. 2015-08-31
    listed $100,000 Active
23. 2015-08-02
    historical
24. 2015-08-02
    historical
25. 2015-08-02
    listed $100,000
26. 2015-07-15
    historical
27. 2015-07-15
    listed $100,000 Active
28. 2015-06-17
    listed $90,000 Active
29. 2014-08-08
    historical
30. 2014-06-11
    listed $90,000 Active
31. 2014-04-15
    historical
32. 2013-06-27
    price $80,000
33. 2013-05-29
    historical
34. 2013-05-25
    listed $65,000 Active
35. 2013-03-28
    listed $66,900 Active
36. 2004-01-21
    soldstatus
37. 2001-05-14
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,559
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,032
• − Management: −$1,032
• − HOA: −$3,420
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable loss: −$1,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$407
• After-tax cash flow: $-271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,272
• Household income: $62,106
• Rent vs Own: 88.2% rent · 11.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2814.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% Asian 22% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.51%
• Current HPI: 170.4017
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.82%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+167.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed for Rent $950 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Rental Removed $945 HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed for Rent $945 HARMLS
• 2024-12-21 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2015-11-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-11-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-08-31 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2015-08-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-08-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-08-02 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2015-07-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-07-15 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2015-06-17 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2014-08-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-06-11 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2014-04-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-06-27 Price Changed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2013-05-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-05-25 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2013-03-28 Listed $66,900 HARMLS
• 2004-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,559 · -11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.