12098 Jessica Cir · Gulfport, MS 39503

$193,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2009 10,018 sqft lot Est $170k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is situated on a cul de sac in Fairfield III. The home features a split primary with a trey ceiling, ensuite with separate shower and tub. Cathedral ceiling in great room, kitchen and dining. New luxury vinyl plank throughout, New paint to interior walls, ceilings, doors, trim and closets. New stainless steel appliances, New light fixtures, New interior/exterior locksets and New privacy fence. This property is centrally located to schools, shopping, dining and entertainment.

Key facts

• Split plan
• Cup-de-sac
• Large pie-shaped lot

Tags

• LARGE PIE-SHAPED LOT
• CUP-DE-SAC
• BACK PATIO
• SPLIT PLAN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway with concrete surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in public-records year
• Exterior features: Private yard; Patio; Back yard privacy fencing (wood); Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric heat pump); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Double vanity; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane, insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,088 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.63%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,832
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11389 Jessica Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,196 (0%)	1mo	$198,000	$166	84
11368 Mia Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+7%)	2mo	$194,500	$152	78
7 Harvest Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+3%)	6mo	$175,000	$142	75
2627 W Angela Cir	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,278 (+7%)	2mo	$124,900	$98	72
9 Joanna Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,149 (-4%)	8mo	$170,000	$148	65
504 Harvey Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,144 (-4%)	1mo	$115,000	$101	63
2621 W Samuel St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,215 (+2%)	7mo	$160,000	$132	62
2708 E David Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-6%)	8mo	$129,900	$116	60
12052 Turnberry Cv	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,058 (-12%)	2mo	$160,000	$151	58
2614 George St	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,080 (-10%)	7mo	$139,900	$130	56
2540 Tandy Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (+2%)	2mo	$155,000	$127	52
13004 Alta Vida Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,339 (+12%)	3mo	$214,900	$160	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,839
• Equity at exit: $28,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $32,709
• Equity at exit: $16,687

Cash invested: $54,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,494

Max offer price $193,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,250
• Closing costs: $5,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11312 Jessica Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,625	$1.49	21d	1	0.04mi
12062 Jessica Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,700	$1.23	13d	1	0.05mi
12271 Dedeaux Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.5	1462	$1,350	$0.92	43d	1	0.13mi
11310 Fairfield Ln Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1084	$1,625	$1.50	43d	1	0.17mi
10669 E Bay Tree Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,425	$1.19	21d	1	0.98mi
13181 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,375	$1.16	43d	1	1.03mi
10596 E Bay Tree Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,200	$1.15	43d	1	1.06mi
13242 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,100	$1.09	43d	1	1.13mi
12147 Prudie Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1100	$975	$0.89	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $193,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $193,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $193,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $193,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $193,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $193,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $193,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $193,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-27
    listed $193,000 Active
11. 2022-10-03
    soldstatus
12. 2022-09-30
    soldstatus Closed 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is situated on a cul de sac in Fairfield III. The home features a split primary with a trey ceiling, ensuite with separate shower and tub. Cathedral ceiling in great room, kitchen and dining. New luxury vinyl plank throughout, New paint to interior walls, ceilings, doors, trim and closets. New stainless steel appliances, New light fixtures, New interior/exterior locksets and New privacy fence. This property is centrally located to schools, shopping, dining and entertainment.

13. 2022-08-17
    status Pending 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is situated on a cul de sac in Fairfield III. The home features a split primary with a trey ceiling, ensuite with separate shower and tub. Cathedral ceiling in great room, kitchen and dining. New luxury vinyl plank throughout, New paint to interior walls, ceilings, doors, trim and closets. New stainless steel appliances, New light fixtures, New interior/exterior locksets and New privacy fence. This property is centrally located to schools, shopping, dining and entertainment.

14. 2022-08-16
    listed $169,900 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is situated on a cul de sac in Fairfield III. The home features a split primary with a trey ceiling, ensuite with separate shower and tub. Cathedral ceiling in great room, kitchen and dining. New luxury vinyl plank throughout, New paint to interior walls, ceilings, doors, trim and closets. New stainless steel appliances, New light fixtures, New interior/exterior locksets and New privacy fence. This property is centrally located to schools, shopping, dining and entertainment.

15. 2009-04-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,525 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$471/yr (+$39/mo · 44.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,811
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$965
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − Depreciation: −$5,615
• Taxable loss: −$1,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$312
• After-tax cash flow: $2,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+13.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $193,000 MLSU
• 2022-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-08-17 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-08-16 Listed $169,900 MLSU
• 2009-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,054 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.