215 Bower · Hot Springs, AR 71913

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,315 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1900 4,356 sqft lot $72/sqft · 46% below area Est $133k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom home on Bower st, currently rented please allow 24 hours notice for showing.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 127 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $95k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.70%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,953
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -28.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 Eddy St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-1%)	10mo	$145,000	$112	83
109 Reynolds St	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,332 (+1%)	4mo	$150,000	$113	80
301 Ramble St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,301 (-1%)	3mo	$179,000	$138	74
206 Westbrook St	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-10%)	4mo	$96,500	$81	68
128 Cove St	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,195 (-9%)	11mo	$187,500	$157	67
128 Pullman Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,140 (-13%)	4mo	$162,000	$142	66
209 Ramble St	0.37mi	2/1.5	1,254 (-5%)	9mo	$153,000	$122	65
112 Cove St	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,497 (+14%)	4mo	$125,000	$84	65
104 Hillcrest St	0.28mi	2/2.5	1,449 (+10%)	0mo	$145,000	$100	64
159 Ravine St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,230 (-6%)	5mo	$246,900	$201	59
117 Poplar St St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,500 (+14%)	12mo	$210,000	$140	57
326 Cedar St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (-10%)	17mo	$149,000	$125	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,344
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $34,444
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $426/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $796

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Breeze St Hot Springs, AR	1.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	23d	1	0.41mi
605 Hig Fry Rd Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,400	$1.74	23d	1	0.79mi
103 Juniper Pl Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	43d	1	0.97mi
315 Convention Blvd Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	43d	4	1.34mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-02-12
    listed $95,000 Active 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    2 bedroom home on Bower st, currently rented please allow 24 hours notice for showing.

18. 2026-02-11
    listed $95,000 New Listing 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    2 bedroom home on Bower st, currently rented please allow 24 hours notice for showing.

19. 2016-08-09
    soldstatus $39,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $426 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$182/yr (+$15/mo · 42.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$426
• − Insurance: −$1,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,012
• − Management: −$1,012
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $971
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$233
• After-tax cash flow: $2,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+139.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $95,000 HSBOR
• 2026-02-11 Listed $95,000 CARMLS
• 2016-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $39,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $426 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.