Pierce Plan · Cove, TX 77523

$266,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,642 sqft · SingleFamily · 464 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The smartly planned Pierce's design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourage connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Great room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• COVERED FIRST-FLOOR PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $266,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,270.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $267k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 464 days — a 12% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 464 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,270
• List price: $266,990
• Delta: -11.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6743 Camila St	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,682 (+2%)	2mo	$284,000	$169	82
6818 Bens Lndg	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,642 (0%)	1mo	$269,800	$164	81
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (-3%)	1mo	$299,100	$188	78
6922 Bens Lndg	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,642 (0%)	1mo	$269,180	$164	77
6810 Bens Lndg	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-8%)	3mo	$259,140	$171	67
6830 Bens Lndg	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-4%)	1mo	$274,870	$174	67
6714 Augusta Greens Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (+9%)	2mo	$324,990	$182	65
411 Ruby Ford Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-14%)	1mo	$254,970	$181	60
7106 Thomas James Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+8%)	1mo	$297,690	$168	60
635 Hidden Brook Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (-8%)	1mo	$282,000	$186	51
14603 Rain Tree Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (+11%)	2mo	$308,000	$169	48
14923 Spring Forest Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,829 (+11%)	2mo	$299,000	$163	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-55,143
• Equity at exit: $44,920

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-53,046
• Equity at exit: $26,048

Cash invested: $84,356 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,488 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,580
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,519/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,635

Max offer price $284,418

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $-12	+0% $-116	+5% $-221	+10% $-325
Rent	-10% $-313	-5% $-215	+0% $-116	+5% $-18	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-40	base $-116	+0.5pp $-195	+1.0pp $-274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,318
• Closing costs: $9,038
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	44d	1	0.65mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	2d	1	0.66mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	20d	1	1.00mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	25d	1	1.13mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	3d	1	1.30mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	16d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $266,990 Active 464 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $266,990 Active 461 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $266,990 Active 460 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $266,990 Active 459 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $266,990 Active 458 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $266,990 Active 456 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $266,990 Active 452 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $266,990 Active 451 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $266,990 Active 450 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $266,990 Active 447 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $266,990 Active 446 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $266,990 Active 445 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $266,990 Active 444 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $266,990 Active 443 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    price $266,990 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce's design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourage connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

16. 2026-01-11
    price $264,990 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce's design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourage connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

17. 2025-06-13
    price $276,990 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce's design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourage connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

18. 2025-03-15
    listed $274,990 Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce's design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourage connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,876
• − Property taxes: −$4,519
• − Insurance: −$1,506
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,389
• − Management: −$2,389
• − Depreciation: −$8,764
• Taxable loss: −$6,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,581
• After-tax cash flow: $183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, modern home with good curb appeal and updated kitchen and bathrooms is ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Both update flooring — modernizes and increases value
• Both install smart home features — attracts tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both update flooring — modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both install smart home features — attracts tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-15 Listed $274,990 Zillow