Is Pierce Plan in Cove, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.7% cap rate and $-405/mo modeled cash flow at a $266,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Pierce Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,211/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 35.22

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.4/30.0
Schools +6.2/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +3.4/5.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
1% rule +2.1/10.0
DSCR +1.5/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$266,990

Pierce Plan · Cove, TX 77523

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,642 sqft · SingleFamily · 604 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The smartly planned Pierce's design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourage connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

Key facts

Gourmet kitchen
Great room
2 garage spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $267k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-405 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (5.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (17.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $221k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 604 days — a 12% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,107 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 604 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.71% ✗
Cap rate: 4.73%
Cash-on-cash: -5.57%
DSCR: 0.75
GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $311,339
List price: $266,990
Delta: -14.24%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6718 Camila St	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,682 (+2%)	1mo	$319,530	$190	87
6822 Bens Lndg	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+8%)	3mo	$295,100	$166	63
6715 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-9%)	4mo	$289,990	$193	62
6715 Camila St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-14%)	2mo	$264,960	$188	62
603 Walnut Branch Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (+3%)	2mo	$299,000	$176	62
14507 Sweet Water Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-0%)	3mo	$289,000	$177	61
407 Turtle Oak Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-0%)	1mo	$287,500	$176	61
6814 Bens Lndg	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+13%)	2mo	$269,790	$146	60
7122 Thomas James Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-4%)	3mo	$286,920	$182	58
411 Walnut Branch Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (+3%)	2mo	$287,500	$169	55
7114 Thomas James Ct	0.52mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+13%)	1mo	$307,010	$166	54
14727 Sweet Water Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+12%)	0mo	$285,000	$154	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -25.4%
Equity multiple: 0.14×
Total profit: $-75,264
Equity at exit: $46,422

10-year hold

IRR: -20.3%
Equity multiple: -0.09×
Total profit: $-94,722
Equity at exit: $26,919

Cash invested: $87,175 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 62 active · 47 under contract
Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $312,515 ($174/sqft)
Median days on market: 80 d
This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +8.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

Home prices YoY: -31.5%
Rents YoY: 3.4%
Active inventory: 1127
Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,211 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,633
Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,670/yr
Insurance: −$130
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
Net cashflow: $-405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,724

Max offer price $252,757

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-190	-5% $-297	+0% $-405	+5% $-512	+10% $-620
Rent	-10% $-580	-5% $-492	+0% $-405	+5% $-318	+10% $-230
Rate	-1.0pp $-248	-0.5pp $-326	base $-405	+0.5pp $-486	+1.0pp $-568

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $77,835
Closing costs: $9,340
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	184d	1	0.65mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	142d	1	0.66mi
5927 Golden Cove Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,700	$1.46	100d	1	0.69mi
5914 Treasure Cove Rd Cove, TX	3.0	3.0	2042	$1,645	$0.81	55d	1	0.74mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,671	$1.11	119d	1	0.85mi
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	121d	1	0.86mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	99d	1	0.89mi
5822 Sapphire Lagoon Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,935	$1.45	48d	1	0.91mi
5822 Sapphire Lagoon Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,800	$1.35	9d	1	0.91mi
5719 Rainbow Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,479	$1.05	10d	1	0.92mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	83d	1	0.96mi
5823 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,916	$1.36	74d	1	0.99mi
5815 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,886	$1.45	85d	1	1.00mi
5727 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$2,036	$1.08	85d	1	1.04mi
8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,801	$1.27	99d	1	1.06mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$1,986	$0.97	21d	1	1.13mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$1,945	$0.95	1d	1	1.13mi
14143 Medina Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,495	$1.19	78d	1	1.19mi
44 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,195	$1.12	87d	1	1.22mi
48 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,195	$1.12	10d	1	1.24mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	143d	1	1.30mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	156d	1	1.30mi
74 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,195	$1.12	119d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $266,990 Active 604 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $266,990 Active 603 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $266,990 Active 602 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $266,990 Active 601 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $266,990 Active 600 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $266,990 Active 598 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $266,990 Active 597 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $266,990 Active 596 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $266,990 Active 595 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $266,990 Active 594 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $266,990 Active 593 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $266,990 Active 592 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $266,990 Active 591 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $266,990 Active 590 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $266,990 Active 589 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $266,990 Active 588 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $266,990 Active 587 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $266,990 Active 586 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $266,990 Active 585 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $266,990 Active 584 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $266,990 Active 583 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $266,990 Active 582 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $266,990 Active 581 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $266,990 Active 580 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $266,990 Active 579 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $266,990 Active 578 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $266,990 Active 577 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $266,990 Active 576 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $266,990 Active 575 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $266,990 Active 574 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $266,990 Active 573 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $266,990 Active 572 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $266,990 Active 571 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $266,990 Active 570 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $266,990 Active 569 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $266,990 Active 568 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $266,990 Active 567 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $266,990 Active 566 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $266,990 Active 565 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $266,990 Active 564 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $266,990 Active 563 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $266,990 Active 562 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $266,990 Active 561 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $266,990 Active 560 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $266,990 Active 559 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $266,990 Active 558 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $266,990 Active 557 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $266,990 Active 556 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $266,990 Active 555 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $266,990 Active 554 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $26,533
− Mortgage interest: −$17,440
− Property taxes: −$4,670
− Insurance: −$1,557
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,123
− Management: −$2,123
− Depreciation: −$9,057
Taxable loss: −$10,436

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,505
After-tax cash flow: $-2,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,210–$24,630 screening

This well-maintained, modern home with good curb appeal and updated kitchen and bathrooms is ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
Both update flooring — modernizes and increases value ↑
Both install smart home features — attracts tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

District: Barbers Hill ISD
NCES district ID: 4809450
Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $87,257
Composite: 61.73/100
National rank: #737
State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Cove

Score: 64/100
State rank: #766
US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 30,186
Household income: $124,188
Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 46,946 people
By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
Current HPI: 222.6999
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-04-08 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
2026-01-11 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
2025-06-13 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
2025-03-15 Listed $274,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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