20141 Ian Ct #305 · Estero, FL 33928

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Condo public records

Built 1999 $621/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-Maintained 3rd Floor 3BR or 2BR/Den Condo with Spectacular Views of Lake Augusta and Golf Course! This beautifully upgraded unit offers a serene escape with vaulted ceilings and a wealth of modern enhancements. Being sold turnkey, it’s move-in ready for your convenience. Key features include: Enclosed Lanai with sliders and an automatic hurricane screen for added protection. Tile Flooring throughout for easy maintenance and modern appeal. Recently Renovated Bathrooms with contemporary finishes. Granite Countertops in the kitchen, combining style and functionality. Located in the sought-after Breckenridge community, enjoy a resort-style lifestyle with amenities such as: An 18-hole executive golf course, 5 swimming pools, 8 Har-Tru tennis courts, 3 pickleball courts, 6 shuffleboard courts, and 3 bocce ball courts. A newly renovated clubhouse featuring a business center, exercise room, library, large meeting space, and catering kitchen. This active community offers a packed schedule of events and activities, ensuring there’s always something to do. Additionally, the property offers limited storage for boats, trailers, and RVs. Conveniently located near premier shopping, dining, the international airport, and just a short drive to the stunning Gulf beaches, this condo has everything you need to live your best life. Don’t miss out—schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• $621 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (18.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heights Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 1,109 students, 38% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,921 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-64,270
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-104,897
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,570 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,056/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$621
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,900

Max offer price $203,921

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-119	-5% $-190	+0% $-261	+5% $-332	+10% $-402
Rent	-10% $-464	-5% $-362	+0% $-261	+5% $-159	+10% $-58
Rate	-1.0pp $-135	-0.5pp $-197	base $-261	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20151 Ian Ct #201 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1429	$3,000	$2.10	25d	1	0.03mi
8470 Kingbird Loop #1020 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1302	$1,750	$1.34	4d	1	0.77mi
8470 Kingbird Loop #1027 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	18d	1	0.77mi
8450 Kingbird Loop #430 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1302	$1,700	$1.31	3d	1	0.82mi
8450 Kingbird Loop #430 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1302	$1,700	$1.31	4d	1	0.82mi
8450 Kingbird Loop #412 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1418	$1,960	$1.38	25d	1	0.82mi
19760 Osprey Cove Blvd #145 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$1,500	$1.34	12d	1	0.82mi
4640 Turnberry Lake Dr #403 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1207	$5,500	$4.56	25d	1	1.12mi
19600 Veduro Cir Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,292	$2.31	16d	11	1.25mi
8251 Grand Palm Dr #3 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$5,800	$4.35	25d	1	1.26mi
19091 Holly Rd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	25d	1	1.29mi
7340 Stoney Grove CIR Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$2,595	$2.35	4d	39	1.31mi
18645 Holly Rd Unit 1 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	21d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $621 · $7,452/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-20
   listed $250,000
2. 2025-04-04
   soldstatus $299,000
3. 2025-03-31
   soldstatus $299,000 Closed 1416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

   Well-Maintained 3rd Floor 3BR or 2BR/Den Condo with Spectacular Views of Lake Augusta and Golf Course! This beautifully upgraded unit offers a serene escape with vaulted ceilings and a wealth of modern enhancements. Being sold turnkey, it’s move-in ready for your convenience. Key features include: Enclosed Lanai with sliders and an automatic hurricane screen for added protection. Tile Flooring throughout for easy maintenance and modern appeal. Recently Renovated Bathrooms with contemporary finishes. Granite Countertops in the kitchen, combining style and functionality. Located in the sought-after Breckenridge community, enjoy a resort-style lifestyle with amenities such as: An 18-hole executive golf course, 5 swimming pools, 8 Har-Tru tennis courts, 3 pickleball courts, 6 shuffleboard courts, and 3 bocce ball courts. A newly renovated clubhouse featuring a business center, exercise room, library, large meeting space, and catering kitchen. This active community offers a packed schedule of events and activities, ensuring there’s always something to do. Additionally, the property offers limited storage for boats, trailers, and RVs. Conveniently located near premier shopping, dining, the international airport, and just a short drive to the stunning Gulf beaches, this condo has everything you need to live your best life. Don’t miss out—schedule your private showing today!

4. 2025-02-17
   status Pending 1416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

   Well-Maintained 3rd Floor 3BR or 2BR/Den Condo with Spectacular Views of Lake Augusta and Golf Course! This beautifully upgraded unit offers a serene escape with vaulted ceilings and a wealth of modern enhancements. Being sold turnkey, it’s move-in ready for your convenience. Key features include: Enclosed Lanai with sliders and an automatic hurricane screen for added protection. Tile Flooring throughout for easy maintenance and modern appeal. Recently Renovated Bathrooms with contemporary finishes. Granite Countertops in the kitchen, combining style and functionality. Located in the sought-after Breckenridge community, enjoy a resort-style lifestyle with amenities such as: An 18-hole executive golf course, 5 swimming pools, 8 Har-Tru tennis courts, 3 pickleball courts, 6 shuffleboard courts, and 3 bocce ball courts. A newly renovated clubhouse featuring a business center, exercise room, library, large meeting space, and catering kitchen. This active community offers a packed schedule of events and activities, ensuring there’s always something to do. Additionally, the property offers limited storage for boats, trailers, and RVs. Conveniently located near premier shopping, dining, the international airport, and just a short drive to the stunning Gulf beaches, this condo has everything you need to live your best life. Don’t miss out—schedule your private showing today!

5. 2024-12-05
   listed $319,900 Active 1416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1416 chars)

   Well-Maintained 3rd Floor 3BR or 2BR/Den Condo with Spectacular Views of Lake Augusta and Golf Course! This beautifully upgraded unit offers a serene escape with vaulted ceilings and a wealth of modern enhancements. Being sold turnkey, it’s move-in ready for your convenience. Key features include: Enclosed Lanai with sliders and an automatic hurricane screen for added protection. Tile Flooring throughout for easy maintenance and modern appeal. Recently Renovated Bathrooms with contemporary finishes. Granite Countertops in the kitchen, combining style and functionality. Located in the sought-after Breckenridge community, enjoy a resort-style lifestyle with amenities such as: An 18-hole executive golf course, 5 swimming pools, 8 Har-Tru tennis courts, 3 pickleball courts, 6 shuffleboard courts, and 3 bocce ball courts. A newly renovated clubhouse featuring a business center, exercise room, library, large meeting space, and catering kitchen. This active community offers a packed schedule of events and activities, ensuring there’s always something to do. Additionally, the property offers limited storage for boats, trailers, and RVs. Conveniently located near premier shopping, dining, the international airport, and just a short drive to the stunning Gulf beaches, this condo has everything you need to live your best life. Don’t miss out—schedule your private showing today!

6. 2016-12-05
   soldstatus $179,000
7. 2004-10-26
   soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,056
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,467
• − Management: −$2,467
• − HOA: −$7,452
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,133
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,712
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $250,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $299,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-31 Sold (MLS) $299,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-02-17 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $319,900 FORTMLS
• 2016-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,056 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.