4052 Fernley St · Jackson, MS 39204

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2008 $63/sqft · 99% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

A quaint family home conveniently located close to Jackson, MS. Quiet neighborhood with just a few homes makes for easy peace and privacy. Priced to sell, we do offer financing with approved credit. Contact me for more information or to view the home.

Key facts

• Peace and privacy
• Quiet neighborhood
• Built 2008

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• PEACE AND PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,179/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1099% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.29%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $32,737
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 98.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1816 Kenmore Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-3%)	8mo	$85,000	$85	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $69,968
• Equity at exit: $58,557

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.95×
• Total profit: $199,309
• Equity at exit: $126,281

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39204

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,179 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,429/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $617

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1816 Kenmore Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	0.48mi
1805 Hospital Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,050	$0.79	13d	1	0.71mi
2010 Chadwick Dr Jackson, MS	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,174	$1.08	13d	1	0.73mi
2010 Chadwick Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,145	$0.90	43d	1	0.73mi
1533 Raymond Rd Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1135	$1,010	$0.89	43d	1	0.95mi
3856 Noble St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,231	$0.91	23d	1	1.12mi
3856 Noble St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,231	$0.91	43d	1	1.12mi
1645 Camellia Ln Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,200	$0.95	13d	1	1.13mi
5136 Lurline Dr Unit Ma Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1134	$1,100	$0.97	13d	1	1.22mi
4567 Meadowmont Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	912	$800	$0.88	43d	1	1.29mi
723 Glenmont Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1018	$1,000	$0.98	43d	1	1.31mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	13d	1	1.43mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	23d	1	1.43mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	23d	1	1.45mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $65,000 Active 251-char remark
18. 2007-07-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,429
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,132
• − Management: −$1,132
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,103
• After-tax cash flow: $4,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 13,249
• Household income: $30,237
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1099.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.25%
• Current HPI: 233.9061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.56%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $65,000 FSBO.com
• 2007-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,429 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.