115 Toles Ave Ave · Larned, KS 67550

$69,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 324 Days on market

Built 1921 7,500 sqft lot ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.0/10.0

Key facts

• New flooring
• Large lot
• Updated paint

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED PAINT
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 150 (0.17 acre); Zoning: Other

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level on 1
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Window coverings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($794 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#120 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Ft Larned (town): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #49 of 169 in KS (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pawnee County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.08%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-1,874
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $10,489
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67550

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $195	-5% $171	+0% $147	+5% $123	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $116	+0% $147	+5% $179	+10% $210
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $165	base $147	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,500 Active 324 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 322 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 321 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 320 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 319 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 317 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,500 Active 316 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,500 Active 313 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,500 Active 312 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 311 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,500 Active 309 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,500 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 306 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 305 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 304 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 303 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $69,500
18. 2025-10-08
    price $79,500
19. 2025-07-10
    listed $97,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$763
• − Management: −$763
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ft Larned
• NCES district ID: 2008370
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $42,806
• Composite: 31.69/100
• National rank: #5919
• State rank: #49 of 169 in KS

Livability — Larned

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #6324

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Larned, KS
• Population (ZIP): 5,137

Population outlook (Pawnee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,800 people
• By 2030: 6,739 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 6,627 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 6,477 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 6,369 · -6.3%
• By 2100: 6,266 · -7.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pawnee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.5) · D 23.4% · R 74.9% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -51.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.5 2020: R+51.4 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.95%
• Current HPI: 182.5283
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-28.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $69,500 Hays MLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $79,500 Hays MLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $97,500 Hays MLS