3026 Hilltop Rd · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$119,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2010 0.57 ac lot $75/sqft · 31% below area Est $217k · 45% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must Sell! All offers considered. 4 bed 2 bath with extra storage plus bonus room that could be 5th bedroom. Home is a “Fixer-Upper” sitting on just over half an acre close to the lake and just outside the city limits. Buyer agents welcome. Owner will Carry with reasonable down (owner doesn’t care about cre dit). If interested come drive by the house. There’s a sign in front of the house with my cell (Listing Agent) on it. Call me and I’ll get you inside to see it. It is a clean slate and is ready for your finishing touches. Property is being sold as is and does need work. If interested come drive by the house and call me. Priced to sell — don’t wait.

Key facts

• 0.57 acre lot
• Built 2010
• Listed 110 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.65%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,400
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -44.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4709 Plum Bush St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-2%)	3mo	$70,000	$45	78
2808 Hilltop Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (+2%)	9mo	$230,000	$142	77
4709 Gooseberry Trl	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,530 (-4%)	1mo	$219,900	$144	76
4403 Mountain Hollow Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-1%)	13mo	$286,000	$181	63
3008 Elmwood Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,618 (+1%)	18mo	$199,000	$123	63
4401 Mountain Hollow Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-1%)	13mo	$286,000	$181	62
2617 Hillside Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+5%)	2mo	$255,000	$152	50
4800 Gooseberry Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (+11%)	13mo	$245,000	$138	46
4544 Poplar Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,433 (-10%)	13mo	$245,000	$171	46
2709 Terrace Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (-14%)	8mo	$238,000	$173	42
2707 Terrace Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (-14%)	12mo	$248,000	$180	38
3513 Woodlake Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-12%)	6mo	$250,000	$177	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $22,554
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $63,776
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,304/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,112

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $786	-5% $752	+0% $718	+5% $684	+10% $650
Rent	-10% $558	-5% $638	+0% $718	+5% $798	+10% $877
Rate	-1.0pp $778	-0.5pp $748	base $718	+0.5pp $687	+1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	0d	1	0.50mi
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	45d	1	0.96mi
5609 Arkansas Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,950	$1.02	0d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    price $119,900 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Must Sell! All offers considered. 4 bed 2 bath with extra storage plus bonus room that could be 5th bedroom. Home is a “Fixer-Upper” sitting on just over half an acre close to the lake and just outside the city limits. Buyer agents welcome. Owner will Carry with reasonable down (owner doesn’t care about cre dit). If interested come drive by the house. There’s a sign in front of the house with my cell (Listing Agent) on it. Call me and I’ll get you inside to see it. It is a clean slate and is ready for your finishing touches. Property is being sold as is and does need work. If interested come drive by the house and call me. Priced to sell — don’t wait.

16. 2026-04-17
    price $128,900 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Must Sell! All offers considered. 4 bed 2 bath with extra storage plus bonus room that could be 5th bedroom. Home is a “Fixer-Upper” sitting on just over half an acre close to the lake and just outside the city limits. Buyer agents welcome. Owner will Carry with reasonable down (owner doesn’t care about cre dit). If interested come drive by the house. There’s a sign in front of the house with my cell (Listing Agent) on it. Call me and I’ll get you inside to see it. It is a clean slate and is ready for your finishing touches. Property is being sold as is and does need work. If interested come drive by the house and call me. Priced to sell — don’t wait.

17. 2026-03-02
    listed $129,900 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Must Sell! All offers considered. 4 bed 2 bath with extra storage plus bonus room that could be 5th bedroom. Home is a “Fixer-Upper” sitting on just over half an acre close to the lake and just outside the city limits. Buyer agents welcome. Owner will Carry with reasonable down (owner doesn’t care about cre dit). If interested come drive by the house. There’s a sign in front of the house with my cell (Listing Agent) on it. Call me and I’ll get you inside to see it. It is a clean slate and is ready for your finishing touches. Property is being sold as is and does need work. If interested come drive by the house and call me. Priced to sell — don’t wait.

18. 2025-10-31
    historical
19. 2025-08-18
    price $109,500
20. 2025-08-10
    listed $120,000 Active
21. 2020-08-28
    soldstatus
22. 2020-02-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,304 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,304 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,304
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $7,166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,720
• After-tax cash flow: $6,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $128,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $109,500 NTREIS
• 2025-08-10 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2020-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,304 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.