5994 Outlook Ct · Maineville, OH 45152

$439,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,459 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2024 10,620 sqft lot Est $391k · 13% over $42/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful water views, finished lower level + resort-style amenities including pool, walking trails, playground & stocked ponds make this home stand out from the rest! Why wait to build when you can move right in? Welcome home to this beautifully maintained, 2-year-new home in the Villages of Classicway! Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 2,549 sqft of living space & finished lower level; this home blends modern style with everyday functionality. The open-concept floor plan showcases a neutral palette, abundant natural light & seamless living spaces ideal for entertaining. The kitchen features a large island, stainless steel appliances, pantry & dining area. Upstai

Key facts

• Stocked ponds
• Large island
• Finished lower level

Tags

• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• WALKING TRAILS
• STOCKED PONDS
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with quarterly fee of $126; Association amenities include water, clubhouse, landscaping, play area, pool, and walking trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front garage (2 car); Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Traditional style single-family home; Two levels; Poured foundation
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven/Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom (14 x 13) on level 2; Bedroom 2 (11 x 12) on level 2; Bedroom 3 (11 x 10) on level 2; Bedroom 4 (10 x 13) on level 2
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom on level 1; Primary bathroom with shower and additional features
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Central air conditioning; Gas water heating
• Interior features: Recessed lights; 6 total rooms; Finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $440k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.9% in Maineville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#529 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,542/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $123k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $439,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.63%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,981
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5976 Outlook Ct	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,423 (-2%)	2mo	$515,000	$213	94
2657 Affirmed Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,559 (+4%)	12mo	$403,000	$157	67
2713 Aristides Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,335 (-5%)	6mo	$409,900	$176	65
2681 Affirmed Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,559 (+4%)	7mo	$395,000	$154	65
5521 Appaloosa Cir	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,352 (-4%)	5mo	$373,000	$159	62
2854 Alysheba Ct	0.52mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,560 (+4%)	2mo	$420,000	$164	60
5209 Man O War Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,518 (+2%)	8mo	$430,000	$171	58
5781 Montrose Ct	0.21mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,826 (+15%)	10mo	$395,000	$140	48
2727 Unbridled Way	0.37mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,769 (+13%)	9mo	$440,000	$159	45
5181 Man O War Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,803 (+14%)	13mo	$440,000	$157	38
5185 Appaloosa Cir	0.66mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,825 (+15%)	10mo	$380,000	$135	27
5663 Appaloosa Cir	0.74mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,100 (-15%)	13mo	$389,900	$186	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $11,382
• Equity at exit: $65,591

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $116,659
• Equity at exit: $38,035

Cash invested: $123,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45152

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$550 /mo · $6,598/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,164
• Net cashflow: $1,296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,901

Max offer price $439,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,600	-5% $1,448	+0% $1,296	+5% $1,144	+10% $992
Rent	-10% $858	-5% $1,077	+0% $1,296	+5% $1,515	+10% $1,734
Rate	-1.0pp $1,518	-0.5pp $1,408	base $1,296	+0.5pp $1,182	+1.0pp $1,066

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,975
• Closing costs: $13,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5738 Azra Ct Morrow, OH	4.0	2.5	2600	$5,995	$2.31	44d	1	0.29mi
6976 Briarcliff Ct Maineville, OH	4.0	3.0	2475	$3,595	$1.45	17d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $439,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 683-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $439,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,641
• − Property taxes: −$6,598
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,320
• − Management: −$5,320
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$12,797
• Taxable income: $9,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,190
• After-tax cash flow: $13,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Miami Local
• NCES district ID: 3905044
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,949
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #844
• State rank: #140 of 656 in OH

Livability — Maineville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #9001

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren · 227,646 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 13,577
• Household income: $120,340
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.6

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.41%
• Current HPI: 239.7828
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+25.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $439,900 Cincy MLS
• 2023-12-31 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2023-12-16 Price Changed $337,990 Cincy MLS
• 2023-11-15 Listed $349,990 Cincy MLS