21228 River View Rd · Warsaw, MO 65355

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · Other public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1979 0.59 ac lot $108/sqft · at area comps Est $127k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

True lake front. Walk out the back, head downhill, and you're at the water. .. no loading up, no driving around, just you and the lake whenever you want it. The house? It needs love. Real love. But the bones are there:open concept layoutbig back deck staring straight at the waterthe kind of setup that, once it's right, people won't want to leaveThis is a roll-your-sleeves-up kind of place. Not for someone scared of a project. .. but for someone who can see past what it is and lock in on what it's about to be. Fix it up, clean it out, bring it back to life. .. and suddenly you've got a lakefront hangout that hits different. Because at the end of the day, you're not making more lakefront.

Key facts

• Lake front
• Big back deck
• Open concept layout

Tags

• LAKE FRONT
• BIG BACK DECK
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.3% in Warsaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.84%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,437
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -21.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $47,658
• Equity at exit: $59,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $123,796
• Equity at exit: $104,912

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $370/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $756

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $403	-5% $375	+0% $346	+5% $318	+10% $290
Rent	-10% $252	-5% $299	+0% $346	+5% $394	+10% $441
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $372	base $346	+0.5pp $320	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $100,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 42 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    status Active 695-char remark

    Show marketing remark (695 chars)

    True lake front. Walk out the back, head downhill, and you're at the water. .. no loading up, no driving around, just you and the lake whenever you want it. The house? It needs love. Real love. But the bones are there:open concept layoutbig back deck staring straight at the waterthe kind of setup that, once it's right, people won't want to leaveThis is a roll-your-sleeves-up kind of place. Not for someone scared of a project. .. but for someone who can see past what it is and lock in on what it's about to be. Fix it up, clean it out, bring it back to life. .. and suddenly you've got a lakefront hangout that hits different. Because at the end of the day, you're not making more lakefront.

19. 2026-04-29
    status Pending 695-char remark

    Show marketing remark (695 chars)

    True lake front. Walk out the back, head downhill, and you're at the water. .. no loading up, no driving around, just you and the lake whenever you want it. The house? It needs love. Real love. But the bones are there:open concept layoutbig back deck staring straight at the waterthe kind of setup that, once it's right, people won't want to leaveThis is a roll-your-sleeves-up kind of place. Not for someone scared of a project. .. but for someone who can see past what it is and lock in on what it's about to be. Fix it up, clean it out, bring it back to life. .. and suddenly you've got a lakefront hangout that hits different. Because at the end of the day, you're not making more lakefront.

20. 2026-04-11
    listed $120,000 Active 695-char remark

    Show marketing remark (695 chars)

    True lake front. Walk out the back, head downhill, and you're at the water. .. no loading up, no driving around, just you and the lake whenever you want it. The house? It needs love. Real love. But the bones are there:open concept layoutbig back deck staring straight at the waterthe kind of setup that, once it's right, people won't want to leaveThis is a roll-your-sleeves-up kind of place. Not for someone scared of a project. .. but for someone who can see past what it is and lock in on what it's about to be. Fix it up, clean it out, bring it back to life. .. and suddenly you've got a lakefront hangout that hits different. Because at the end of the day, you're not making more lakefront.

21. 2007-02-21
    soldstatus
22. 1996-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $370 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$600/yr (+$50/mo · 162.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$370
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$637
• After-tax cash flow: $3,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #15201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-04-29 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-11 Listed $120,000 SOMO
• 2007-02-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $370 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.