3778 Maya Pl SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$349,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 10,019 sqft lot $34/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the stunning Cali model home at Cypress Bay West, Palm Bay, Florida—where luxury meets convenience and comfort in every square foot! This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spans 1,828 square feet, blending elegance with modern functionality. Quartz countertops and luxury vinyl plank floors in the main living and wet areas create a high-end, timeless feel. Step into the bright foyer that flows into the open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for entertaining. Large windows fill the space with natural light and offer beautiful views. The kitchen features quartz counters, stainless-steel appliances, a walk-in pantry, a large island with breakfast bar, and a slee

Key facts

• Large windows
• Quartz countertops
• Open-concept living

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• LARGE WINDOWS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (29.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 759 students, 58% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,586 (29.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.62%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $172,887
• Equity at exit: $314,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $527,194
• Equity at exit: $678,030

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,446 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,608/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,819

Max offer price $296,937

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
925 Dugan Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	13d	1	0.12mi
1394 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1876	$2,500	$1.33	19d	1	0.12mi
1434 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	13d	1	0.15mi
3636 Aberdeen Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	19d	1	0.16mi
1566 Criswell Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.21mi
1783 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2207	$2,100	$0.95	23d	1	0.54mi
1046 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.5	2405	$3,100	$1.29	23d	1	0.54mi
3517 Rixford Way SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2562	$2,800	$1.09	23d	1	0.55mi
1063 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	23d	1	0.57mi
1884 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,000	$1.14	23d	1	0.59mi
1843 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,200	$1.21	23d	1	0.63mi
1496 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,440	$1.12	14d	1	0.64mi
1453 Santa Anna St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,500	$1.25	14d	1	0.89mi
1213 Waterford St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,000	$1.18	23d	1	1.00mi
2073 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,133	$1.17	23d	1	1.07mi
2183 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,000	$1.19	23d	1	1.17mi
3004 Suntan Ct SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2388	$2,900	$1.21	23d	1	1.20mi
820 Tedder Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,000	$1.11	23d	1	1.28mi
2877 Palisades Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,150	$1.09	19d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   price $349,000
3. 2026-03-18
   listed $346,000 Active
4. 2025-05-14
   soldstatus $1,370,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,608 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,897 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$289/yr (+$24/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$2,608
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$9,809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,354
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-74.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — SCMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $349,000 SCMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $346,000 SCMLS
• 2025-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $1,370,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,608 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.