4400 W Missouri Ave #302 · Glendale, AZ 85301

$55,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Manufactured · 196 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $83k · 34% under ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $804 monthly; Association fee includes: other (see remarks); Community amenities: pool, playground, fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Other roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Fencing: other

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (master bedroom on the first level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (type: other); Has cooling (type: other)
• Interior features: Full bathroom in the master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: other / none listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $900 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.9% vs local median 3.5% in Glendale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AZ, #3,235 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Alhambra High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #281 of 381 statewide, top 75%, 2,282 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.15%
• DSCR: 4.12
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,200
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4400 W Missouri Ave #25	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+3%)	2mo	$92,000	$68	84
4400 W Missouri Ave #45	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-0%)	8mo	$54,000	$42	82
5484 N 43rd Ave #5	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-6%)	1mo	$65,000	$53	76
4400 W Missouri Ave #76	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-4%)	21mo	$80,000	$64	65
4400 W Missouri Ave #286	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-14%)	10mo	$105,000	$94	58
4400 W Missouri Ave #69	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	14mo	$45,000	$31	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $43,697
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $93,622
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85301

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $938	-5% $919	+0% $900	+5% $881	+10% $862
Rent	-10% $772	-5% $836	+0% $900	+5% $964	+10% $1,028
Rate	-1.0pp $928	-0.5pp $914	base $900	+0.5pp $886	+1.0pp $871

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5710 N 43rd Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.5	1296	$1,900	$1.47	2d	1	0.16mi
4303 W Solano Dr N Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,795	$1.06	2d	1	0.21mi
4132 W Colter St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,795	$1.35	2d	1	0.47mi
4021 W Berridge Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,545	$1.02	2d	1	0.65mi
3925 W Oregon Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,180	$1.45	2d	1	0.66mi
4056 W Mesquite Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1005	$1,500	$1.49	2d	1	0.67mi
4029 W Mesquite Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$1,195	$1.29	22d	1	0.71mi
5040 N 40th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$1,195	$1.29	2d	1	0.72mi
5030 N 40th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	924	$1,100	$1.19	2d	1	0.74mi
5041 N 40th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1005	$1,195	$1.19	2d	1	0.75mi
4608 W Maryland Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,598	$1.31	2d	3	0.90mi
4608 W Maryland Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	3d	4	0.90mi
4608 W Maryland Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	2d	4	0.90mi
4562 W Maryland Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,798	$1.46	20d	1	0.91mi
4032 W Stella Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1526	$2,200	$1.44	2d	1	0.92mi
4717 N 47th Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1573	$1,695	$1.08	19d	1	0.96mi
4749 N 39th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,720	$1.34	2d	1	0.97mi
6550 N 47th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,400	$1.34	2d	1	0.99mi
4530 W McLellan Rd Glendale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0	782	$1,749	$2.24	2d	6	1.02mi
6551 N 49th Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1165	$2,150	$1.84	2d	6	1.06mi
4748 W Sierra Vista Dr Unit B1 Glendale, AZ	2.0	2.0	875	$1,170	$1.34	2d	1	1.07mi
3636 W Keim Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,995	$1.44	2d	1	1.09mi
4748 W Sierra Vista Dr Glendale, AZ	2.0	2.0	875	$1,262	$1.44	22d	1	1.09mi
4748 W Sierra Vista Dr Glendale, AZ	2.0	2.0	875	$1,185	$1.35	4d	1	1.09mi
4714 N 49th Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1697	$2,030	$1.20	2d	1	1.15mi
3515 W Rovey Ave Unit 3515-01 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	15d	1	1.15mi
6734 N 43rd Ave Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.0	1576	$2,700	$1.71	3d	1	1.17mi
5044 W Maryland Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	1.0	1065	$1,295	$1.22	3d	1	1.19mi
6741 N 45th Ave Unit 29 Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	2d	1	1.19mi
5012 W McLellan Rd Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,595	$1.51	18d	1	1.22mi
6814 N 44th Ave #2 Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.5	980	$1,436	$1.47	3d	1	1.23mi
4436 N 47th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,510	$1.17	19d	1	1.26mi
6850 N 44th Ave #4 Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.5	980	$1,436	$1.47	3d	1	1.26mi
3839 W Hazelwood St Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$1,050	$1.06	24d	1	1.28mi
3839 W Hazelwood St Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$950	$0.95	2d	1	1.28mi
5047 W Tuckey Ln Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,765	$1.26	2d	1	1.30mi
5046 W Tuckey Ln Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,400	$1.06	17d	1	1.30mi
3807 W Hazelwood St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1121	$1,635	$1.46	2d	1	1.31mi
5037 W Krall St Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.0	1449	$2,026	$1.40	4d	1	1.32mi
5024 W Krall St Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,749	$1.46	2d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $55,000
16. 2026-01-05
    price $60,000
17. 2026-01-04
    price $68,000
18. 2025-11-05
    listed $78,000 Active
19. 2025-09-29
    historical
20. 2025-09-09
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥112°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $10,555
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,533
• After-tax cash flow: $8,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Glendale

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3235

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Glendale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 294,586
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 68,178
• Household income: $53,827
• Rent vs Own: 60.0% rent · 40.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3741.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 37% White 22% Black 8% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 48% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.49%
• Current HPI: 427.3069
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-35.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $68,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $78,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $85,000 ARMLS