194 Pavilion Ave · Providence, RI 02905

$599,000

12 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,352 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1930 3,920 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Excellent investment opportunity! Well-maintained three-family property, ideal for both investors and owner-occupants looking to live in one unit while generating rental income from the others. This property features a total of 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, distributed among two spacious units, each offering 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Additional highlights include hardwood floors, gas heat, a fenced yard, and a paved driveway with parking for up to 8 vehicles. Two newer boilers were installed approximately 2 years ago, and the water tanks were recently replaced in May 2026. The property also includes leased solar panels with a monthly payment of approximately $190. Conveniently loca

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Leased solar panels
• Paved driveway

Tags

• THREE-FAMILY PROPERTY
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FENCED YARD
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• LEASED SOLAR PANELS
• STRONG RENTAL INCOME POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Close to highway access, hospital, schools, and public transportation

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 covered garage spaces; Total parking for 8 vehicles
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Water connected; 100 amp electrical service
• Home design: 3-story multi-unit building; One building containing multiple residential units; 2,352 above-grade finished area
• Construction: Plaster and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Lot with 80 feet frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater (building equipment)
• Bedrooms: Three 2-bedroom units
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full bathroom (total of 3 full bathrooms in the building)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating with baseboard and forced air
• Interior features: Hardwood flooring; Full unfinished basement with interior and exterior entry
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 4-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($30k/yr) — positive. Per door: $845/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $599k).
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.2% in Providence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in RI, #794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F.
• Providence (urban): math 8% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #34 of 39 in RI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,810/mo this rent would consume 149% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 1220% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $315k; list at $599k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $599,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.13%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $67,663
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $280,636
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 31 Tenant-Leaning
• State Rhode Island: 31 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; strong tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02905

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 19.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,810 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,946/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,640
• Net cashflow: $2,534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,603

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 63%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	4	2	$7,809
Total (3 units)			$7,810

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on marketlisting id $599,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $599,000 Pending 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $599,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $599,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    listed $599,000 Active
11. 2016-11-08
    price $89,561
12. 2008-12-22
    historical
13. 2008-07-22
    listed $135,000
14. 2008-02-28
    soldstatus $315,000
15. 2008-02-27
    soldstatus $315,000
16. 2007-12-20
    historical
17. 2007-12-07
    listed $265,000
18. 2007-09-22
    historical
19. 2007-03-22
    listed $259,900
20. 1999-07-16
    listed $69,900
21. 1999-06-20
    historical
22. 1998-08-21
    listed $65,500
23. 1997-01-08
    historical
24. 1996-07-08
    listed $99,561

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast RI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,946 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,355 · $530/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,409/yr (+$284/mo · 115.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $93,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$2,946
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,498
• − Management: −$7,498
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable income: $21,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,233
• After-tax cash flow: $25,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Providence
• NCES district ID: 4400900
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,197
• Composite: 10.12/100
• National rank: #9803
• State rank: #34 of 39 in RI

Livability — Providence

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #794

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence, RI
• County: Providence County · 548,917 people
• City population: 212,734
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• Population (ZIP): 25,012
• Household income: $62,908
• Rent vs Own: 50.3% rent · 49.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1220.0

Population outlook (Providence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 653,469 people
• By 2030: 660,819 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 672,747 · +3.0%
• By 2050: 683,741 · +4.6%
• By 2075: 720,435 · +10.2%
• By 2100: 741,582 · +13.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 38% Black 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Providence

• 2024 margin: D (+14.4) · D 56.1% · R 41.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 34.4pp · 2024: 14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.4 2020: D+22.9 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+34.9 2008: D+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -396.84%
• Current HPI: 387.2525
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.45%
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in RI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$373B
▸Food Distribution	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$14B
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$4B

Price history

+501.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $599,000 RIS
• 2016-11-08 Price Changed $89,561 RIS
• 2008-12-22 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2008-07-22 Listed $135,000 RIS
• 2008-02-28 Sold (MLS) $315,000 RIS
• 2008-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2007-12-20 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2007-12-07 Listed $265,000 RIS
• 2007-09-22 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2007-03-22 Listed $259,900 RIS
• 1999-07-16 Listed $69,900 RIS
• 1999-06-20 Listing Removed — RIS
• 1998-08-21 Listed $65,500 RIS
• 1997-01-08 Listing Removed — RIS
• 1996-07-08 Listed $99,561 RIS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,946 · -39.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.