15695 Schank Rd · Cut and Shoot, TX 77306

$99,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 156 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 10,062 sqft lot $63/sqft · 39% below area Est $161k · 39% under $79/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well maintained home that offers a bright, open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining area, and living room creates a warm, inviting atmosphere with plenty of space to gather with friends and family. The island kitchen is the heart of the home, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, and making lasting family memories, and features beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and easy-to-maintain vinyl flooring. Best of all, all appliances stay, making this home truly move-in ready. Start your mornings or unwind in the evenings on the charming covered front porch, the ideal spot to enjoy your favorite beverage and take in the peaceful surroundings. The spacious primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with room to relax, complemented by a generously sized primary bathroom designed for convenience and comfort.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Vinyl flooring
• Ample cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• VINYL FLOORING
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $977 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.28%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,413
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -38.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15409 Forest Trace North Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	8mo	$229,000	$157	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $46,255
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $120,742
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,621/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $980

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,033	-5% $1,005	+0% $977	+5% $949	+10% $921
Rent	-10% $802	-5% $889	+0% $977	+5% $1,064	+10% $1,152
Rate	-1.0pp $1,027	-0.5pp $1,002	base $977	+0.5pp $951	+1.0pp $925

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	23d	1	0.71mi
14990 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$2,400	$1.49	45d	1	0.86mi
14918 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$1,955	$0.99	45d	1	0.92mi
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $99,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $109,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    price $119,000 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    Welcome to this well maintained home that offers a bright, open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining area, and living room creates a warm, inviting atmosphere with plenty of space to gather with friends and family. The island kitchen is the heart of the home, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, and making lasting family memories, and features beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and easy-to-maintain vinyl flooring. Best of all, all appliances stay, making this home truly move-in ready. Start your mornings or unwind in the evenings on the charming covered front porch, the ideal spot to enjoy your favorite beverage and take in the peaceful surroundings. The spacious primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with room to relax, complemented by a generously sized primary bathroom designed for convenience and comfort.

17. 2026-04-21
    price $139,000 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    Welcome to this well maintained home that offers a bright, open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining area, and living room creates a warm, inviting atmosphere with plenty of space to gather with friends and family. The island kitchen is the heart of the home, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, and making lasting family memories, and features beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and easy-to-maintain vinyl flooring. Best of all, all appliances stay, making this home truly move-in ready. Start your mornings or unwind in the evenings on the charming covered front porch, the ideal spot to enjoy your favorite beverage and take in the peaceful surroundings. The spacious primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with room to relax, complemented by a generously sized primary bathroom designed for convenience and comfort.

18. 2026-03-20
    price $149,000 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    Welcome to this well maintained home that offers a bright, open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining area, and living room creates a warm, inviting atmosphere with plenty of space to gather with friends and family. The island kitchen is the heart of the home, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, and making lasting family memories, and features beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and easy-to-maintain vinyl flooring. Best of all, all appliances stay, making this home truly move-in ready. Start your mornings or unwind in the evenings on the charming covered front porch, the ideal spot to enjoy your favorite beverage and take in the peaceful surroundings. The spacious primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with room to relax, complemented by a generously sized primary bathroom designed for convenience and comfort.

19. 2026-02-18
    price $159,000 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    Welcome to this well maintained home that offers a bright, open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining area, and living room creates a warm, inviting atmosphere with plenty of space to gather with friends and family. The island kitchen is the heart of the home, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, and making lasting family memories, and features beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and easy-to-maintain vinyl flooring. Best of all, all appliances stay, making this home truly move-in ready. Start your mornings or unwind in the evenings on the charming covered front porch, the ideal spot to enjoy your favorite beverage and take in the peaceful surroundings. The spacious primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with room to relax, complemented by a generously sized primary bathroom designed for convenience and comfort.

20. 2026-01-16
    listed $171,000 Active 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    Welcome to this well maintained home that offers a bright, open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining area, and living room creates a warm, inviting atmosphere with plenty of space to gather with friends and family. The island kitchen is the heart of the home, perfect for meal prep, casual dining, and making lasting family memories, and features beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and easy-to-maintain vinyl flooring. Best of all, all appliances stay, making this home truly move-in ready. Start your mornings or unwind in the evenings on the charming covered front porch, the ideal spot to enjoy your favorite beverage and take in the peaceful surroundings. The spacious primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with room to relax, complemented by a generously sized primary bathroom designed for convenience and comfort.

21. 2022-05-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,621 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 11.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,621
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $10,855
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,605
• After-tax cash flow: $9,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $171,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+66.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,621 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.