39 Paradise Ln · Pacific Beach, WA 98571

$399,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Built 2013 0.33 ac lot $247/sqft · 33% below area Est $601k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

2.25% ASSUMABLE LOAN. Step into your coastal sanctuary with this light, bright & well maintained home. Built to the same rigorous standards and codes as traditional stick-built residences, this modular home offers exceptional quality & peace of mind. Designed for comfort and versatility, featuring two separate living areas, a cozy fireplace, and three bedrooms—including a primary suite with its own private bath. An attached two-car garage that leads through the laundry room into the kitchen where all appliances are included. This residence is completely move-in ready. Situated on an oversized lot that hosts a variety of blueberries, strawberries & fruit trees. Locati

Key facts

• Modular home
• Primary suite
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• MODULAR HOME
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• PRIMARY SUITE
• OVERSIZED LOT
• VARIETY OF BLUEBERRIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-473 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 1.4% in Pacific Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#590 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pacific Beach Elementary School (110 students, 84% FRL); North Beach Junior High School (162 students, 78% FRL); North Beach Senior High School (177 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $400k implies a 1851% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $290,000 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $601,103
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -33.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24 Duke Ln	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,763 (+9%)	2mo	$630,000	$357	64
32 1st St N	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,724 (+6%)	8mo	$684,000	$397	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-75,900
• Equity at exit: $79,866

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-87,666
• Equity at exit: $70,345

Cash invested: $111,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98571

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $6,000/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,499

Max offer price $331,511

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-197	-5% $-335	+0% $-473	+5% $-611	+10% $-750
Rent	-10% $-702	-5% $-588	+0% $-473	+5% $-359	+10% $-244
Rate	-1.0pp $-272	-0.5pp $-372	base $-473	+0.5pp $-577	+1.0pp $-682

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,998
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38 S 4th St Pacific Beach, WA	4.0	2.5	2196	$2,900	$1.32	45d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   listed $399,990 Active
3. 2000-10-05
   soldstatus $20,500
4. 2000-07-28
   listed $21,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥74°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$6,000
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$12,810
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,074
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Pacific Beach

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #590
• US rank: #26290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacific Beach, WA
• Population (ZIP): 52

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Current HPI: 231.3572
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+1722.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $399,990 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-05 Sold (MLS) $20,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-28 Listed $21,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid