15094 Agulia Ave · Vero Beach South, FL 34951

$25,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 115 Days on market

Built 1993 Est $23k · 10% over ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained home in the desirable 55-plus community of Spanish Lakes Fairways. Home is at the back of the park with a very private backyard. 2-bedroom 2-bath home. newer laminate floors, no carpet. open kitchen with dinette area. Laundry is in the home. lovely back patio, great for morning coffee or evening cocktails. Lawn care, trash removal, and golf are included in the lot rent. The community includes 2 pools, tennis, pickleball, bocce ball, and shuffleboard. clubhouse and much more. Must See!

Key facts

• Tennis
• Private backyard
• Pickleball

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BACK PATIO
• 2 POOLS
• TENNIS
• PICKLEBALL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association membership; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball courts, bocce, shuffleboard, billiard room, game room, library, community room, dog park, workshop area, golf, and bocce ball; Association covers grounds maintenance, trash, and golf; Senior community; Pets allowed (restrictions possible)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered carport; Has carport
• Security: Security patrol
• Utilities: Three-phase electric; Public sewer; Water available; Sewer available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces south; Resale condition
• Construction: Modular construction; Other roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 76.7% vs local median 4.3% in Vero Beach South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#163 in FL, #2,445 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weatherbee Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 672 students, 90% FRL); Dan Mccarty Middle School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 747 students, 88% FRL); Fort Pierce Westwood Academy The W.E.S.T. Prep Magnet (math 16% / reading 36%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,010 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Lucie average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 294 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 76.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 251.49%
• DSCR: 12.19
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $22,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6539 Spanish Lakes Blvd	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	3mo	$24,987	$21	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.77×
• Total profit: $89,417
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 29.33×
• Total profit: $198,306
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $1,467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,484	-5% $1,476	+0% $1,467	+5% $1,458	+10% $1,450
Rent	-10% $1,303	-5% $1,385	+0% $1,467	+5% $1,549	+10% $1,631
Rate	-1.0pp $1,480	-0.5pp $1,473	base $1,467	+0.5pp $1,461	+1.0pp $1,454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6765 Spanish Lakes Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,500	$1.83	25d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $25,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $25,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $29,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $29,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $29,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 96 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,900 Active 95 DOM
18. 2026-03-27
    price $29,900
19. 2026-02-24
    listed $35,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $18,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,391
• After-tax cash flow: $13,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Beach South

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #2445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $29,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $35,900 Beaches MLS