420 Bellwood Ave · Asbury, NJ 08802

$279,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1940 1.14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Renovation opportunity Knocks! 4 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath Ranch being sold As Is, Where Is. Great Opportunity to rehab a property.

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#452 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Union Township School District (rural): math 40% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #93 of 472 in NJ (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $279k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $279,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-15,776
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $24,523
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08802

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$481 /mo · $5,767/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,608

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $618	-5% $539	+0% $460	+5% $381	+10% $302
Rent	-10% $208	-5% $334	+0% $460	+5% $586	+10% $712
Rate	-1.0pp $601	-0.5pp $531	base $460	+0.5pp $388	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $279,000 Active
3. 2026-01-30
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-28
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-28
   historical
6. 2026-01-28
   listed $279,000 Active
7. 2026-01-27
   status Active Under Contract
8. 2025-09-11
   status Pending
9. 2025-09-11
   historical
10. 2025-09-09
    listed Active Under Contract
11. 2025-09-09
    listed $279,000
12. 2024-06-06
    soldstatus $153,000
13. 2023-08-29
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,767 · $481/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,357 · $530/mo
• Expected delta: +$590/yr (+$49/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$5,767
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,062
• − Management: −$3,062
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable income: $1,248
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$300
• After-tax cash flow: $5,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416440
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $102,607
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #1958
• State rank: #93 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Asbury

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #452
• US rank: #17036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,604

Population outlook (Hunterdon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,644 people
• By 2030: 121,131 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 117,753 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 112,601 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 104,371 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 93,364 · -23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunterdon

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.7% · R 52.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.7pp toward D · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+13.8 2012: R+18.8 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.10%
• Current HPI: 215.9105
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+179.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $279,000 MOMLS
• 2026-01-30 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-01-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $279,000 MOMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $279,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,767 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.