3948 Shoreham 121 · Jackson, MI 49201

$82,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $56k · 47% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step Into The Perfect Blend of Space, Comfort, and Affordability!

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $92,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; Model/plan name: The Reserves
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,568

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Spec home in The Reserves plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 5.5% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#197 in MI, #4,970 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Northwest Community Schools (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northwest Early Elementary School (869 students, 61% FRL); Northwest Kidder Middle School (math 14% / reading 41%, grade F, #363 of 493 statewide, top 75%, 790 students, 50% FRL); Northwest High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 972 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $573 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $81,656 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.83%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $56,448
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3717 Cypress	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (-3%)	11mo	$40,000	$26	57
3844 Havenwood Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	14mo	$53,000	$36	57
3842 Jarrow Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-10%)	8mo	$64,000	$46	56
3806 Catalpa	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	14mo	$42,500	$29	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $36,477
• Equity at exit: $12,361

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $122,890
• Equity at exit: $7,168

Cash invested: $23,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49201

• Rents YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,554 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $725

Max offer price $82,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $712	-5% $683	+0% $654	+5% $626	+10% $597
Rent	-10% $532	-5% $593	+0% $654	+5% $716	+10% $777
Rate	-1.0pp $696	-0.5pp $675	base $654	+0.5pp $633	+1.0pp $611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,725
• Closing costs: $2,487
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3999 Sherwood Lakes Blvd Jackson, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,339	$1.27	45d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $82,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $82,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $82,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $92,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $92,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    remarks 65-char remark
14. 2026-06-05
    listed $92,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,644
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − Depreciation: −$2,412
• Taxable income: $6,946
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,667
• After-tax cash flow: $6,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a well-maintained exterior and interior. Minor updates such as painting and landscaping can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626010
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,509
• Composite: 25.88/100
• National rank: #7342
• State rank: #360 of 540 in MI

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #4970

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 85,581 people
• City population: 85,581
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• Population (ZIP): 49,107
• Household income: $74,484
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 840.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,365 people
• By 2030: 153,123 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 144,981 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 135,671 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 113,833 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 86,592 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.6% · R 59.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.89%
• Current HPI: 185.3773
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.32%
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B