5895 Columbine Rd · Hope Mills, NC 28306

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1968 0.35 ac lot Est $198k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Must see! Full house remodel with classic real hardwood floors, tile, and carpet in office/flex room that can be used as a forth bedroom. Features a gorgeous new barn door, large laundry room, new tile in baths as well as new tile shower for owner's room, new HVAC, fenced back yard, all on huge corner lot.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-96/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Mills Elementary (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 572 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 400 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $172k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,494 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,153
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2613 Cameron Woods Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,091 (-1%)	10mo	$215,000	$197	68
2625 Cameron Woods Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,195 (+8%)	2mo	$210,000	$176	65
2928 Chillingworth Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,131 (+2%)	5mo	$209,900	$186	65
5924 Lively Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-0%)	11mo	$211,995	$192	60
2601 Quail Forest Dr	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,023 (-8%)	14mo	$195,000	$191	60
5931 Hotspur Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+4%)	8mo	$204,000	$176	53
2916 Loon Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+14%)	4mo	$207,500	$164	50
3029 Rosemeade Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+13%)	1mo	$226,500	$181	48
2853 Chillingsworth Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+13%)	7mo	$220,000	$176	48
2908 Rosemeade Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+14%)	3mo	$210,000	$167	47
3025 Rosemeade Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,261 (+14%)	2mo	$225,000	$178	47
5912 Unaka Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+15%)	5mo	$227,000	$179	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-36,251
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-45,337
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28306

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,585 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,536/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,595

Max offer price $198,582

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $49	+0% $-8	+5% $-65	+10% $-121
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-71	+0% $-8	+5% $55	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $43	base $-8	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2579 Gotts Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	23d	1	0.52mi
2935 Chillingworth Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,750	$1.25	15d	1	0.59mi
5532 Robmont Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1301	$1,800	$1.38	15d	1	0.60mi
2524 Penny Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,400	$1.05	25d	1	0.72mi
4615 Cumberland Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	783	$825	$1.05	25d	1	0.79mi
3038 Walesby Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,650	$1.30	25d	1	1.04mi
2543 Painters Mill Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,600	$1.39	15d	1	1.07mi
2161 Bingham Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,325	$1.02	15d	1	1.10mi
5595 Quietwood Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,395	$1.08	25d	1	1.15mi
1514 Aristo Pl Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	15d	1	1.16mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,700	$1.15	15d	1	1.19mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,750	$1.19	25d	1	1.19mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	25d	1	1.27mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	15d	1	1.27mi
3511 Birchfield Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1270	$1,685	$1.33	15d	5	1.39mi
4630 Canterbury Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	25d	1	1.47mi
2640 Latrobe Ave Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,815	$1.68	15d	30	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2023-09-01
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-25
   historical
3. 2022-10-05
   soldstatus $172,000
4. 2022-08-16
   historical
5. 2022-07-12
   listed $199,999
6. 2020-12-30
   soldstatus $15,000
7. 1996-06-25
   soldstatus $48,000
8. 1992-06-18
   soldstatus $52,000
9. 1987-06-22
   soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$104/yr (+$9/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,536
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,522
• − Management: −$1,522
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$859
• After-tax cash flow: $763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,042
• Household income: $67,544
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1386.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.69%
• Current HPI: 239.7281
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+314.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2023-09-01 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2023-08-25 Delisted — LPRMLS
• 2022-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-16 Delisted — LPRMLS
• 2022-07-12 Listed $199,999 LPRMLS
• 2020-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1996-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1992-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1987-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,536 · +44.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.