10693 Prairie Lake Dr · Apison, TN 37302

$352,540

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot Garage $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Aria floorplan is available in the Prairie Pass in Apison, TN . This spacious single level floorplan features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet with a comfortable bathroom. The kitchen, living, and dining areas are open concept, allowing the home to feel even more spacious and welcoming. The kitchen has a beautiful island with countertop seating, making it ideal for entertaining. This plan also features a covered patio in the back of the house. Enjoy the convenience of a laundry room directly off the foyer.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Walk-in closet
• Laundry room

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN CONCEPT
• COVERED PATIO
• LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $352,540 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $380,070.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $353k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-657 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#106 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Apison Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #47 of 952 statewide, top 5%, 652 students, 0% FRL); East Hamilton Middle School (math 52% / reading 43%, grade C-, #24 of 333 statewide, top 7%, 1,007 students, 0% FRL); East Hamilton High School (math 16% / reading 54%, grade F, #39 of 332 statewide, top 12%, 1,265 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hamilton County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($331k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $256,659 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.41%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,070
• List price: $352,540
• Delta: -7.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10717 Prairie Lake Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,618 (0%)	2mo	$325,000	$201	96
10700 Prairie Lake Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (0%)	2mo	$348,120	$215	92
10696 Prairie Lake Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,764 (+9%)	1mo	$325,000	$184	83
10705 Prairie Lake Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,764 (+9%)	2mo	$349,900	$198	82
10712 Prairie Lake Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+14%)	3mo	$347,500	$188	71
10745 Upland Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,764 (+9%)	10mo	$390,000	$221	69
10778 Upland Drive Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+14%)	4mo	$390,980	$211	65
10749 Upland Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+14%)	7mo	$379,050	$205	63
10750 Upland Drive Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,821 (+12%)	7mo	$379,325	$208	63
10791 Upland Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+8%)	13mo	$363,260	$208	62
10798 Upland Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,821 (+12%)	14mo	$415,170	$228	57
10527 E Brainerd Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,387 (-14%)	11mo	$340,000	$245	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-103,356
• Equity at exit: $56,670

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-143,578
• Equity at exit: $32,862

Cash invested: $106,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $357,825 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 158 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37302

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,701/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,398

Max offer price $285,005

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-394	-5% $-526	+0% $-657	+5% $-788	+10% $-920
Rent	-10% $-860	-5% $-758	+0% $-657	+5% $-556	+10% $-454
Rate	-1.0pp $-466	-0.5pp $-560	base $-657	+0.5pp $-755	+1.0pp $-856

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,018
• Closing costs: $11,402
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3753 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,995	$1.38	109d	1	0.76mi
11114 E Brainerd Rd Apison, TN	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	0d	1	1.00mi
1408 Centerstone Ln Apison, TN	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,875	$1.29	0d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $700 annual fee (about $58.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)Kitchen-level access to garage
• Security: Security systemSmoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceNew construction by D.R. HortonTwo levelsLevel lotSplit-possible lot
• Construction: Fiber cement constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered porchDeckPatio

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas rangeRefrigeratorMicrowaveDishwasherGarbage disposalTankless water heaterGas water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsLow-flow plumbing fixturesPantryWalk-in closet(s)Insulated windowsLow-emissivity windowsWindow treatmentsGas log fireplace in the great room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookupsElectric and gas dryer hookups

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $352,540 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $352,540 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $352,540 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $352,540 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $352,540 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $352,540 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $352,540 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $352,540 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $352,540 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $352,540 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $352,540 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $352,540 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $352,540 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $352,540 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $352,540 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $352,540 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $352,540 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $352,540 Active 56 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $352,540 Active 55 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $352,540 Active 54 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $352,540 Active 52 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $352,540 Active 51 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $352,540 Active 50 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $352,540 Active 49 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $352,540 Active 48 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    statusdays on market $352,540 Active 47 DOM
27. 2026-06-09
    status $352,540 Pending 46 DOM
28. 2026-06-08
    days on market $352,540 Active 46 DOM
29. 2026-06-07
    days on market $352,540 Active 45 DOM
30. 2026-06-05
    days on market $352,540 Active 42 DOM
31. 2026-06-03
    days on market $352,540 Active 41 DOM
32. 2026-06-02
    days on market $352,540 Active 40 DOM
33. 2026-06-01
    days on market $352,540 Active 39 DOM
34. 2026-05-31
    days on market $352,540 Active 38 DOM
35. 2026-05-30
    days on market $352,540 Active 37 DOM
36. 2026-04-25
    listed $352,540 Active 1032-char remark
37. 2026-04-22
    listed $352,540 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,290
• − Property taxes: −$5,701
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,464
• − Management: −$2,464
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$11,057
• Taxable loss: −$14,773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,545
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,090–$24,270 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Reorganizing and decluttering interior spaces — Improves flow and makes the home more inviting ↑
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Apison Elementary School B TN #47/952 Nat'l #5,998/41,679 Middle East Hamilton Middle School C- TN #24/333 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High East Hamilton High School F TN #39/332 Nat'l #9,567/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Apison

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #10827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apison, TN
• County: Hamilton · 393,784 people
• City population: 5,253
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,253
• Household income: $103,578
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 5% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.96%
• Current HPI: 294.8398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $700 annual fee (about $58.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)Kitchen-level access to garage
• Security: Security systemSmoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceNew construction by D.R. HortonTwo levelsLevel lotSplit-possible lot
• Construction: Fiber cement constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered porchDeckPatio

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas rangeRefrigeratorMicrowaveDishwasherGarbage disposalTankless water heaterGas water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsLow-flow plumbing fixturesPantryWalk-in closet(s)Insulated windowsLow-emissivity windowsWindow treatmentsGas log fireplace in the great room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookupsElectric and gas dryer hookups

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — GCAR
• 2026-04-22 Listed $352,540 GCAR