10693 Prairie Lake Dr · Apison, TN 37302

$349,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot Garage $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Aria floorplan is available in the Prairie Pass in Apison, TN . This spacious single level floorplan features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet with a comfortable bathroom. The kitchen, living, and dining areas are open concept, allowing the home to feel even more spacious and welcoming. The kitchen has a beautiful island with countertop seating, making it ideal for entertaining. This plan also features a covered patio in the back of the house. Enjoy the convenience of a laundry room directly off the foyer.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Walk-in closet
• Laundry room

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN CONCEPT
• COVERED PATIO
• LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $349,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $379,525.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-451 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#106 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Apison Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #47 of 952 statewide, top 5%, 652 students, 0% FRL); East Hamilton Middle School (math 52% / reading 43%, grade C-, #24 of 333 statewide, top 7%, 1,007 students, 0% FRL); East Hamilton High School (math 16% / reading 54%, grade F, #39 of 332 statewide, top 12%, 1,265 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hamilton County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $282,211 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,525
• List price: $349,500
• Delta: -7.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10717 Prairie Lake Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,618 (0%)	3mo	$325,000	$201	95
10700 Prairie Lake Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (0%)	4mo	$348,120	$215	90
10701 Prairie Lake Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,497 (-8%)	1mo	$324,665	$217	86
10696 Prairie Lake Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,764 (+9%)	2mo	$325,000	$184	82
10672 Prairie Lake Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,764 (+9%)	1mo	$362,790	$206	81
10705 Prairie Lake Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,764 (+9%)	4mo	$349,900	$198	80
10712 Prairie Lake Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+14%)	4mo	$347,500	$188	70
10745 Upland Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,764 (+9%)	11mo	$390,000	$221	67
10778 Upland Drive Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+14%)	6mo	$390,980	$211	64
10749 Upland Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+14%)	9mo	$379,050	$205	61
10750 Upland Drive Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,821 (+12%)	9mo	$379,325	$208	61
10527 E Brainerd Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,387 (-14%)	12mo	$340,000	$245	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-90,168
• Equity at exit: $56,588

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-115,214
• Equity at exit: $32,814

Cash invested: $106,267 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $358,495 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 204 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37302

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,990
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$474 /mo · $5,693/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $-451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,393

Max offer price $314,215

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-189	-5% $-320	+0% $-451	+5% $-582	+10% $-714
Rent	-10% $-674	-5% $-563	+0% $-451	+5% $-340	+10% $-228
Rate	-1.0pp $-260	-0.5pp $-355	base $-451	+0.5pp $-550	+1.0pp $-650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,881
• Closing costs: $11,386
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10815 Upland Dr Apison, TN	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,895	$1.29	15d	1	0.19mi
10815 Upland Dr Apison, TN	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,895	$1.29	8d	1	0.19mi
3753 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,995	$1.38	154d	1	0.76mi
11114 E Brainerd Rd Apison, TN	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	0d	1	1.00mi
1408 Centerstone Ln Apison, TN	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,875	$1.29	0d	1	1.44mi
1408 Centerstone Ln Apison, TN	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,875	$1.29	5d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $700 annual fee (about $58.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)Kitchen-level access to garage
• Security: Security systemSmoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceNew construction by D.R. HortonTwo levelsLevel lotSplit-possible lot
• Construction: Fiber cement constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered porchDeckPatio

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas rangeRefrigeratorMicrowaveDishwasherGarbage disposalTankless water heaterGas water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsLow-flow plumbing fixturesPantryWalk-in closet(s)Insulated windowsLow-emissivity windowsWindow treatmentsGas log fireplace in the great room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookupsElectric and gas dryer hookups

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $349,500 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $349,500 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $349,500 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $349,500 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $349,500 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $349,500 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $349,500 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $349,500 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $349,500 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $349,500 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $349,500 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $349,500 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $349,500 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $349,500 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $349,500 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $349,500 Active 111 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $349,500 Active 110 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    pricedays on market $349,500 Active 109 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $357,000 Active 108 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $357,000 Active 107 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $357,000 Active 106 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $357,000 Active 105 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $357,000 Active 104 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $357,000 Active 103 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $357,000 Active 102 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $357,000 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $357,000 Active 100 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $357,000 Active 99 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    pricedays on market $357,000 Active 98 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $352,540 Active 97 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $352,540 Active 96 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $352,540 Active 95 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $352,540 Active 94 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $352,540 Active 93 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $352,540 Active 92 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $352,540 Active 91 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $352,540 Active 90 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $352,540 Active 89 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $352,540 Active 88 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $352,540 Active 87 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $352,540 Active 86 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $352,540 Active 85 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $352,540 Active 84 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $352,540 Active 83 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $352,540 Active 82 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $352,540 Active 81 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $352,540 Active 80 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $352,540 Active 79 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $352,540 Active 78 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $352,540 Active 76 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,259
• − Property taxes: −$5,693
• − Insurance: −$1,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,709
• − Management: −$2,709
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$11,041
• Taxable loss: −$12,140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,914
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,090–$24,270 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Reorganizing and decluttering interior spaces — Improves flow and makes the home more inviting ↑
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Apison Elementary School B TN #47/952 Nat'l #5,998/41,679 Middle East Hamilton Middle School C- TN #24/333 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High East Hamilton High School F TN #39/332 Nat'l #9,567/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Apison

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #10827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apison, TN
• County: Hamilton · 393,784 people
• City population: 5,253
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,253
• Household income: $103,578
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.96%
• Current HPI: 294.8398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $700 annual fee (about $58.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)Kitchen-level access to garage
• Security: Security systemSmoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceNew construction by D.R. HortonTwo levelsLevel lotSplit-possible lot
• Construction: Fiber cement constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered porchDeckPatio

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas rangeRefrigeratorMicrowaveDishwasherGarbage disposalTankless water heaterGas water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsLow-flow plumbing fixturesPantryWalk-in closet(s)Insulated windowsLow-emissivity windowsWindow treatmentsGas log fireplace in the great room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookupsElectric and gas dryer hookups

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — GCAR
• 2026-04-22 Listed $352,540 GCAR