15490 Big Oak Bay Rd · New Chapel Hill, TX 75707

$215,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2025 1.10 ac lot $116/sqft · 83% below area ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Whoa, pull the car over! This adorable cottage is a must see. It is situated just blocks from Lake Tyler and has everything you need for a compact home, including LVP floors, high ceilings, and tons of natural light. The two-bedroom one-bath layout features a spacious walk-in shower. The open-concept kitchen and living room combo offer ample space, with custom blue cabinets a gas stove, farm sink, and a small island. Outside, the over-acre property boasts mature trees for shade, a 15x13 shop for your toys, a greenhouse for gardening, a storage bin, a fence around the property - all with incredible curb appeal. You are 4.5 miles from the public boat ramp. There is a septic and RV hook up on

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Natural light
• Lvp floors

Tags

• LVP FLOORS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• CUSTOM BLUE CABINETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Single-story
• Construction: Cedar construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Wooded lot; Outdoor storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Vaulted ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,275 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime D-.
• Arp ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #400 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,028 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.04%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $571,556
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -62.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-20,057
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,097
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75707

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,670

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16640 Quiet Bay Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	1.5	1848	$2,495	$1.35	44d	1	1.30mi
16640 Quiet Bay Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	1.5	1848	$2,350	$1.27	13d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $215,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    status $219,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-04-25
    listed $219,000 Active 774-char remark
18. 1999-05-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,706/yr (+$226/mo · 220.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$129
• After-tax cash flow: $3,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arp ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808730
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,075
• Composite: 34.58/100
• National rank: #5165
• State rank: #400 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Chapel Hill

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1275
• US rank: #22160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing B- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 16,355
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,532
• Household income: $84,954
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 304.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.97%
• Current HPI: 196.577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $215,000 GTAR
• 2026-05-30 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-05-26 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-04-25 Listed $219,000 GTAR
• 1999-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,228 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.