83 Ithaca Ave · Atlantic Beach, NY 11509

$2,750,000

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,523 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 342 Days on market

Built 2007 6,800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Recently Reduced Price !!! Thinking about buying a home in Atlantic Beach, this is the perfect house at the perfect time and perfect price!!!! Summer is around the corner. A one of-a-kind CUSTOM BUILT HOME WITH INGROUND GUNITE HEATED POOL. FULL FINISHED BASEMENT WITH FAMILY ROOM, BEDROOM, FULL BATH, SUMMER KITCHEN & MUCH MORE * * * * * * * * * Mint Condition. * * * * AN AMAZING OPPORTUNITY TO OWN THIS HOME * * * SHORT WALK TO BEACH * * * * SHORT WALK TO ALL HOUSES OF WORSHIP * * * * Using only the best quality and materials this Home Combines A Mediterranean & Contemporary Style giving it a Bright Open Warm Feeling . .. .. 5 Bedrooms, 4.5 Bath

Key facts

• Grand foyer
• Enormous kitchen
• Custom moldings

Tags

• GRAND FOYER
• CURVED HOLLYWOOD STAIRCASE
• CUSTOM MOLDINGS
• ENORMOUS KITCHEN
• FULL FINISHED BASEMENT
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $2.75M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.50M (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.42M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#376 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawrence Elementary School At Broadway Campus (math 35% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,350 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 480 students, 78% FRL); Lawrence Middle School At Broadway Campus (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 405 students, 79% FRL); Lawrence Senior High School (math 87% / reading 30%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 770 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $294k of equity ($19k loan paydown + $275k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $770k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$473k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 342 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.42M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $450k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $675k; list at $2.75M implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,420,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 342 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.94%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,416,246
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
83 Ithaca Ave	0.00mi	5/4.5	4,000 (+14%)	0mo	$2,225,000	$556	75
1830 Bay Blvd	0.12mi	5/5.0	3,602 (+2%)	20mo	$3,700,000	$1,027	74
113 Dutchess Blvd	0.22mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,530 (+0%)	19mo	$3,400,000	$963	66
1590 Beech St	0.57mi	5/4.0	3,300 (-6%)	6mo	$1,325,000	$402	54
1515 Park St	0.70mi	5/4.0	3,600 (+2%)	17mo	$1,350,000	$375	46
146 Beach 5th St	0.71mi	6/4.0 (+1)	3,942 (+12%)	9mo	$1,425,000	$361	30
229 Beach 3rd St	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,000 (-15%)	23mo	$875,000	$292	8

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $1,628,919
• Equity at exit: $2,477,418

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $4,692,542
• Equity at exit: $5,342,645

Cash invested: $770,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11509

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,421
• Tax from tax record: −$1,669 /mo · $20,026/yr
• Insurance: −$1,146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,253
• Net cashflow: $2,067

Break-even live

Break-even rent $22,401

Max offer price $2,750,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,623	-5% $2,845	+0% $2,067	+5% $1,288	+10% $510
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $1,078	+0% $2,067	+5% $3,055	+10% $4,043
Rate	-1.0pp $3,451	-0.5pp $2,766	base $2,067	+0.5pp $1,354	+1.0pp $629

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $687,500
• Closing costs: $82,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1701 Bay Blvd Atlantic Beach, NY	4.0	3.0	2730	$25,000	$9.16	26d	1	0.35mi
77 Tioga Ave Atlantic Beach, NY	4.0	2.5	2800	$5,800	$2.07	26d	1	0.47mi
1495 Bay Blvd Atlantic Beach, NY	6.0	4.5	3744	$20,000	$5.34	1d	1	0.73mi
49 Harborview W Lawrence, NY	4.0	4.5	3877	$35,000	$9.03	45d	1	1.09mi
215 Scott Dr Atlantic Beach, NY	5.0	3.0	2862	$22,500	$7.86	1d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $2,750,000
3. 2026-01-01
   historical
4. 2026-01-01
   status Active
5. 2025-09-15
   price $2,995,000
6. 2025-04-30
   listed $3,200,000 Active
7. 2021-04-17
   historical
8. 2021-04-01
   status Active
9. 2021-03-26
   historical
10. 2020-10-04
    listed $2,800,000 Active
11. 2005-04-01
    soldstatus $675,000
12. 1999-07-08
    soldstatus $311,000
13. 1987-09-09
    soldstatus $305,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $20,026 · $1,669/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $33,251 · $2,771/mo
• Expected delta: +$13,224/yr (+$1,102/mo · 66.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$154,043
• − Property taxes: −$20,026
• − Insurance: −$19,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,016
• − Management: −$24,016
• − Depreciation: −$80,000
• Taxable loss: −$21,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,083
• After-tax cash flow: $29,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616830
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $91,008
• Composite: 42.14/100
• National rank: #3307
• State rank: #399 of 590 in NY

Livability — Atlantic Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #6459

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atlantic Beach, NY
• City population: 1,747
• Population (ZIP): 1,747

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 8% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.04%
• Current HPI: 392.2777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+801.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $2,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $2,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-30 Listed $3,200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-04 Listed $2,800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $675,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $311,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $20,026 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.