10720 Sturbridge Ct · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$59,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2015

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY FOR YOUR YEAR ROUND HOME OR YOUR WINTER HOME. BAYONET POINT VILLAGE IS AN ACTIVE 55+ COMMUNITY. THERE IS A COMMUNITY POOL, SHUFFLEBOARD WITH A CLUBHOUSE AND HANDICAP ACCESS BATHROOMS. GOLF CARTS ALLOWED WITH PLENTY OF SPACE TO PARK IT IN THE CARPORT. THIS SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN IS A 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH HOME AT THE END OF A QUIET STREET. THE HOME HAS BEEN PLACED ON A FULL SLAB OF CONCRETE NOT JUST THE PERIMETER OF THE HOME. THE HOME COMES WITH A LARGE WORKSHOP WITH ELECTRICITY OR IT CAN BE USED AS A STORAGE ROOM. NEW A/C UNIT AS OF AUGUST 2023. WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM IN PLACE. ORIGINAL SHINGLED ROOF. FLORIDA ROOM WITH CABLE AND PLENTY OF WINDOWS. NEW CARPETING IN LIVING ROOM &am

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Golf carts allowed

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• CLUBHOUSE
• GOLF CARTS ALLOWED
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2015; Single-family home (coop association)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1404
• Exterior features: Located in the Bayonet Point Village Co-op community

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.4% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,001 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.03%
• DSCR: 4.83
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11801 Bruin Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	3mo	$280,000	$185	72
10741 Pomelo Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	10mo	$240,000	$200	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $60,580
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.57×
• Total profit: $127,044
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,201/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $1,202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $661

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,236	-5% $1,219	+0% $1,202	+5% $1,186	+10% $1,169
Rent	-10% $1,030	-5% $1,116	+0% $1,202	+5% $1,289	+10% $1,375
Rate	-1.0pp $1,233	-0.5pp $1,218	base $1,202	+0.5pp $1,187	+1.0pp $1,171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12065 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,200	$1.53	19d	1	1.14mi
12245 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1207	$2,280	$1.89	25d	1	1.15mi
12250 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,200	$1.35	25d	1	1.16mi
11920 Palm Bay Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,100	$1.19	19d	1	1.17mi
11920 Palm Bay Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,100	$1.19	13d	1	1.17mi
12316 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,150	$1.32	4d	1	1.22mi
9444 Bourbon St Unit 12 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,875	$1.63	25d	1	1.30mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	25d	1	1.36mi
12135 Environmental Dr #4 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,800	$1.45	25d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $59,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $59,900 Active
15. 2025-02-11
    historical
16. 2025-01-16
    price $193,500
17. 2024-11-21
    price $195,000
18. 2024-11-06
    status Active
19. 2024-10-31
    status Pending
20. 2024-09-24
    price $199,999
21. 2024-08-07
    listed $205,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,201 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,201 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$2,201
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $14,411
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,459
• After-tax cash flow: $10,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-70.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $59,900 FSBO.com
• 2025-02-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $193,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $199,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-07 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,201 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.