3351 County Road 265 · Lakehills, TX 78056

$209,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1989 1.00 ac lot $199/sqft · 33% below area Est $313k · 33% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely home outside the hustle and Bussell of city living. Fully fenced and paved road access.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Paved road access
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• PAVED ROAD ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.2% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $86 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,009 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.80%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,002
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -32.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $27,938
• Equity at exit: $61,379

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $95,654
• Equity at exit: $74,125

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78056

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,410 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,244/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $648	-5% $588	+0% $529	+5% $469	+10% $410
Rent	-10% $338	-5% $434	+0% $529	+5% $624	+10% $719
Rate	-1.0pp $635	-0.5pp $582	base $529	+0.5pp $474	+1.0pp $419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,900 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $209,900 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Lovely home outside the hustle and Bussell of city living. Fully fenced and paved road access.

16. 2026-04-06
    price $229,900 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Lovely home outside the hustle and Bussell of city living. Fully fenced and paved road access.

17. 2026-03-16
    price $239,900 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Lovely home outside the hustle and Bussell of city living. Fully fenced and paved road access.

18. 2026-02-23
    listed $244,900 New 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Lovely home outside the hustle and Bussell of city living. Fully fenced and paved road access.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,244 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,841 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,597/yr (+$133/mo · 71.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,244
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,314
• − Management: −$2,314
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $3,137
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$753
• After-tax cash flow: $5,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 2,431

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 7% Scottish 6%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 219.5947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $209,900 LERA
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $229,900 LERA
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $239,900 LERA
• 2026-02-23 Listed $244,900 LERA

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,244 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.