11509 Spicewood Ln · Houston, TX 77044

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 2022 5,998 sqft lot $99/sqft · 15% below area Est $117k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable and newly remodeled home! Three bedrooms and one & half bathrooms make this a perfect space for a family. Updates throughout interior and exterior. New kitchen cabinets, New flooring, Fresh paint. New mini split AC/Heat units. Bathroom been redone. It is a MUST SEE!! Ready for new owner Come and see for yourself. Schedule your private tour the property!!

Key facts

• Newly remodeled home
• Fresh paint
• New flooring

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED HOME
• UPDATES THROUGHOUT INTERIOR
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW MINI SPLIT AC HEAT UNITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.95%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,391
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -14.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-228
• Equity at exit: $21,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $10,338
• Equity at exit: $20,113

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $258/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8523 Brock Park Blvd Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1130	$1,375	$1.22	5d	1	0.84mi
9943 Valley Wind Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,595	$1.21	2d	1	0.86mi
12212 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,315	$1.39	5d	15	1.17mi
12324 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,254	$1.07	24d	1	1.21mi
9930 Valley Lake Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1385	$1,795	$1.30	43d	1	1.25mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,107	$1.07	24d	1	1.43mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	20d	1	1.43mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	43d	1	1.43mi
9133 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	3d	1	1.46mi
9393 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1135	$1,244	$1.10	1d	10	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Pending 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Pending 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $99,900 Pending 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,900 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-01-26
    listed $99,900 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Affordable and newly remodeled home! Three bedrooms and one & half bathrooms make this a perfect space for a family. Updates throughout interior and exterior. New kitchen cabinets, New flooring, Fresh paint. New mini split AC/Heat units. Bathroom been redone. It is a MUST SEE!! Ready for new owner Come and see for yourself. Schedule your private tour the property!!

14. 2022-09-12
    soldstatus
15. 2004-05-14
    soldstatus
16. 1988-06-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $258 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,570/yr (+$131/mo · 607.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$258
• − Insurance: −$5,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$270
• After-tax cash flow: $2,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2022-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $258 · +21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.