18434 W Papago St · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$758,999

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,215 sqft · Land · 69 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot $236/sqft · 32% above area Est $577k · 32% over $155/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Cash flow +0.6/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW, 45' RV GARAGE + 3 CAR GARAGE, 1/4 ACRE LOT. Home price reflects base price with selected options. Gorgeous Interior Finishes, RV Garage + 3 Car Tandem, Pavered Driveway and Walkway, Gas Gourmet Kitchen, Oversized Bedrooms, Raised Height Vanities at Bathrooms. Las Ventanas offers homeowners convenient access to shopping, dining, recreation, and major employment centers. Easy access to Interstate 10 and Loop 303 ensures a seamless commute. Residents can enjoy a centralized park with EV Chargers, shaded play structures, sports courts, outdoor amphitheater and a large, covered open air pavilion that includes picnic tables, lawn and table games, comfy lounging areas and open turf areas--perfect for outdoor enthusiasts.

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Quartz countertops
• Wall oven

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• GAS COOKTOP
• WALL OVEN
• MICROWAVE
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $759k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-39k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (62.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (64.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (64.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Liberty Elementary District (4266) (rural): math 26% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #100 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1088 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($713k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,053 (64.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 65% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.35% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.49%
• DSCR: 0.18
• GRM: 23.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $576,649
• List price: $758,999
• Delta: 31.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -56.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-339,310
• Equity at exit: $113,169

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.79×
• Total profit: $-593,954
• Equity at exit: $65,624

Cash invested: $212,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1088
• Price-to-rent: 23.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,691 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,980
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$949 /mo · $11,385/yr
• Insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-3,275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,836

Max offer price $285,137

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $189,750
• Closing costs: $22,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2506 S 186th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	3100	$30,000	$9.68	1d	1	0.75mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	4d	1	1.03mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	1d	1	1.03mi
56 S 190th Ln Buckeye, AZ	4.0	2.5	2114	$1,995	$0.94	3d	1	1.21mi
1613 S 174th Ln Goodyear, AZ	5.0	3.0	2999	$2,999	$1.00	1d	1	1.24mi
17430 W Yavapai St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2277	$1,995	$0.88	1d	1	1.27mi
17421 W Papago St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2522	$2,600	$1.03	14d	1	1.28mi
17415 W Yavapai St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.0	2277	$2,295	$1.01	16d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $758,999 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $758,999 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $758,999 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $758,999 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $758,999 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $758,999 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $739,499 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $739,499 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $739,499 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $739,499 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $739,499 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $739,499 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $734,999 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $734,999 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $734,999 Active 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    BRAND NEW, 45' RV GARAGE + 3 CAR GARAGE, 1/4 ACRE LOT. Home price reflects base price with selected options. Gorgeous Interior Finishes, RV Garage + 3 Car Tandem, Pavered Driveway and Walkway, Gas Gourmet Kitchen, Oversized Bedrooms, Raised Height Vanities at Bathrooms. Las Ventanas offers homeowners convenient access to shopping, dining, recreation, and major employment centers. Easy access to Interstate 10 and Loop 303 ensures a seamless commute. Residents can enjoy a centralized park with EV Chargers, shaded play structures, sports courts, outdoor amphitheater and a large, covered open air pavilion that includes picnic tables, lawn and table games, comfy lounging areas and open turf areas--perfect for outdoor enthusiasts.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,516
• − Property taxes: −$11,385
• − Insurance: −$3,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,583
• − Management: −$2,583
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$22,080
• Taxable loss: −$54,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,084
• After-tax cash flow: $-26,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Elementary District (4266)
• NCES district ID: 0404320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $71,731
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6881
• State rank: #100 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $734,999 ARMLS