13 Keyes St · Warren, MA 01083

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,127 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1887 4,356 sqft lot $177/sqft · 32% below area Est $292k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Aggressively priced to sell, this charming single-family home offers exceptional value in the heart of Warren. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and 1,127 sq ft of living space, this property sits on a manageable 4,356 sq ft lot with a functional and efficient layout. The home offers comfortable living with a spacious main level, including a living room, dining area, family room, and kitchen, along with three bedrooms on the upper level. Interior features include vinyl flooring on the main level and wall-to-wall carpet in the bedrooms, providing a practical and low-maintenance living environment. Conveniently located at the corner of Keyes Street and Southbridge Road, this property offers easy access to local schools, amenities, and major routes. With strong value at its current price point, this is a great opportunity for owner-occupants or investors looking for a well-located home at an attractive entry price.

Key facts

• Corner location
• Vinyl flooring
• Wall-to-wall carpet

Tags

• SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS MAIN LEVEL
• VINYL FLOORING
• WALL-TO-WALL CARPET
• CORNER LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.6% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#243 in MA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Quaboag Regional (rural): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #196 of 302 in MA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $133k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.43%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,210
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -31.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Keyes St	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,078 (-4%)	14mo	$215,000	$199	78
214 Southbridge Rd	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+2%)	18mo	$295,000	$256	78
19 Keyes St	0.02mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,232 (+9%)	13mo	$315,000	$256	66
36 Nelson St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+12%)	3mo	$435,000	$346	65
21 Hitchcock Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,034 (-8%)	7mo	$255,000	$247	61
33 Mechanic St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,232 (+9%)	17mo	$445,000	$361	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,312
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $25,784
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01083

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,643/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $504	-5% $448	+0% $391	+5% $335	+10% $279
Rent	-10% $217	-5% $304	+0% $391	+5% $478	+10% $565
Rate	-1.0pp $491	-0.5pp $442	base $391	+0.5pp $340	+1.0pp $287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
991 Main St Unit 1 Warren, MA	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	14d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Back On Market 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    status $199,000 Back On Market 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $199,000 Under Agreement 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Contingent 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Contingent 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Contingent 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    status Back On Market 925-char remark

    Show marketing remark (925 chars)

    Aggressively priced to sell, this charming single-family home offers exceptional value in the heart of Warren. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and 1,127 sq ft of living space, this property sits on a manageable 4,356 sq ft lot with a functional and efficient layout. The home offers comfortable living with a spacious main level, including a living room, dining area, family room, and kitchen, along with three bedrooms on the upper level. Interior features include vinyl flooring on the main level and wall-to-wall carpet in the bedrooms, providing a practical and low-maintenance living environment. Conveniently located at the corner of Keyes Street and Southbridge Road, this property offers easy access to local schools, amenities, and major routes. With strong value at its current price point, this is a great opportunity for owner-occupants or investors looking for a well-located home at an attractive entry price.

18. 2026-04-20
    status Under Agreement 925-char remark

    Show marketing remark (925 chars)

    Aggressively priced to sell, this charming single-family home offers exceptional value in the heart of Warren. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and 1,127 sq ft of living space, this property sits on a manageable 4,356 sq ft lot with a functional and efficient layout. The home offers comfortable living with a spacious main level, including a living room, dining area, family room, and kitchen, along with three bedrooms on the upper level. Interior features include vinyl flooring on the main level and wall-to-wall carpet in the bedrooms, providing a practical and low-maintenance living environment. Conveniently located at the corner of Keyes Street and Southbridge Road, this property offers easy access to local schools, amenities, and major routes. With strong value at its current price point, this is a great opportunity for owner-occupants or investors looking for a well-located home at an attractive entry price.

19. 2026-04-16
    listed $199,000 New 925-char remark

    Show marketing remark (925 chars)

    Aggressively priced to sell, this charming single-family home offers exceptional value in the heart of Warren. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and 1,127 sq ft of living space, this property sits on a manageable 4,356 sq ft lot with a functional and efficient layout. The home offers comfortable living with a spacious main level, including a living room, dining area, family room, and kitchen, along with three bedrooms on the upper level. Interior features include vinyl flooring on the main level and wall-to-wall carpet in the bedrooms, providing a practical and low-maintenance living environment. Conveniently located at the corner of Keyes Street and Southbridge Road, this property offers easy access to local schools, amenities, and major routes. With strong value at its current price point, this is a great opportunity for owner-occupants or investors looking for a well-located home at an attractive entry price.

20. 2018-07-20
    soldstatus $133,000 Sold 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Charming, move in ready, 6 Room 3 Bedroom home with many recent updates. Perfect for someone that is downsizing or first time home buyers. Updates include new roof in 2017, remodeled kitchen, new ceilings, wall to wall carpet on 2nd floor and new laminate floors on first floor, fully insulated and a partially fenced back yard with a fire pit. Priced to sell and won't last long! No showings until after the open house Saturday, May 12th from 11-1.

21. 2018-06-01
    status Under Agreement 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Charming, move in ready, 6 Room 3 Bedroom home with many recent updates. Perfect for someone that is downsizing or first time home buyers. Updates include new roof in 2017, remodeled kitchen, new ceilings, wall to wall carpet on 2nd floor and new laminate floors on first floor, fully insulated and a partially fenced back yard with a fire pit. Priced to sell and won't last long! No showings until after the open house Saturday, May 12th from 11-1.

22. 2018-05-26
    status Back On Market 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Charming, move in ready, 6 Room 3 Bedroom home with many recent updates. Perfect for someone that is downsizing or first time home buyers. Updates include new roof in 2017, remodeled kitchen, new ceilings, wall to wall carpet on 2nd floor and new laminate floors on first floor, fully insulated and a partially fenced back yard with a fire pit. Priced to sell and won't last long! No showings until after the open house Saturday, May 12th from 11-1.

23. 2018-05-15
    status Under Agreement 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Charming, move in ready, 6 Room 3 Bedroom home with many recent updates. Perfect for someone that is downsizing or first time home buyers. Updates include new roof in 2017, remodeled kitchen, new ceilings, wall to wall carpet on 2nd floor and new laminate floors on first floor, fully insulated and a partially fenced back yard with a fire pit. Priced to sell and won't last long! No showings until after the open house Saturday, May 12th from 11-1.

24. 2018-05-09
    listed $133,000 New 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Charming, move in ready, 6 Room 3 Bedroom home with many recent updates. Perfect for someone that is downsizing or first time home buyers. Updates include new roof in 2017, remodeled kitchen, new ceilings, wall to wall carpet on 2nd floor and new laminate floors on first floor, fully insulated and a partially fenced back yard with a fire pit. Priced to sell and won't last long! No showings until after the open house Saturday, May 12th from 11-1.

25. 2002-09-27
    soldstatus $103,500
26. 2002-09-27
    soldstatus $103,500
27. 2002-08-23
    historical
28. 2001-12-28
    listed $105,900
29. 1995-03-24
    soldstatus $58,000
30. 1995-01-01
    historical
31. 1994-10-26
    listed $65,000
32. 1988-02-09
    soldstatus $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,643 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,643 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,643
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$384
• After-tax cash flow: $4,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quaboag Regional
• NCES district ID: 2512100
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,059
• Composite: 35.83/100
• National rank: #4825
• State rank: #196 of 302 in MA

Livability — Warren

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #24180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MA
• City population: 2,746
• Population (ZIP): 2,746

Population outlook (Worcester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 850,858 people
• By 2030: 860,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 869,902 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 869,110 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 870,120 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 829,703 · -2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 27% Lithuanian 23% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Worcester

• 2024 margin: D (+10.0) · D 53.9% · R 43.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.8pp · 2024: 10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.0 2020: D+17.8 2016: D+10.5 2012: D+9.2 2008: D+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.73%
• Current HPI: 280.5118
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+121.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — MLS PIN
• 2026-04-20 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2026-04-16 Listed $199,000 MLS PIN
• 2018-07-20 Sold (MLS) $133,000 MLS PIN
• 2018-06-01 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2018-05-26 Relisted — MLS PIN
• 2018-05-15 Pending — MLS PIN
• 2018-05-09 Listed $133,000 MLS PIN
• 2002-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $103,500 Public Records
• 2002-09-27 Sold (MLS) $103,500 MLS PIN
• 2002-08-23 Listing Removed — MLS PIN
• 2001-12-28 Listed $105,900 MLS PIN
• 1995-03-24 Sold (MLS) $58,000 MLS PIN
• 1995-01-01 Listing Removed — MLS PIN
• 1994-10-26 Listed $65,000 MLS PIN
• 1988-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,643 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.