49 Old Waterville Rd · Oakland, ME 04963

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 882 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1900 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1900-built home in the heart of Oakland offering 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and classic character throughout. Situated on a manageable 0.34-acre lot, the property features a practical storage shed out back for your tools and outdoor gear. Location is everything here--enjoy living just minutes from the pristine waters of the Belgrade Lakes region, including Messalonskee Lake and the popular Oakland Town Beach for boating, fishing, and swimming. Nature enthusiasts will love the proximity to the scenic Messalonskee Stream Trail, while cultural events at the Snow Pond Center for the Arts are just a short drive away. Convenient to local Main Street shops and Interstate 95!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1960
• Construction: Original construction from 1960
• Exterior features: Located in the Oakland subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-293/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.8% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#37 in ME, #3,871 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• RSU 18 (rural): math 88% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #36 of 112 in ME (top 32%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $153,450 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $106,764
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $315,502
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04963

• Home prices YoY: 25.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,322/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $194,689

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 682-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on marketlisting id $199,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,999 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,999 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,999 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,999 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 177-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,322 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,014 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$692/yr (+$58/mo · 52.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,322
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$909
• After-tax cash flow: $616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 18
• NCES district ID: 2314779
• Math proficiency: 88% ▲ 53.00%
• Reading proficiency: 89% ▲ 32.00%
• Median HH income: $55,125
• Composite: 75.2/100
• National rank: #139
• State rank: #36 of 112 in ME

Livability — Oakland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #3871

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakland, ME
• Population (ZIP): 7,375

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 76.94%
• Current HPI: 383.7687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+25.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $199,999 FSBO.com
• 2025-10-09 Delisted — MREIS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $229,000 MREIS
• 2023-09-06 Delisted — MREIS
• 2023-07-26 Listed $225,000 MREIS
• 2022-11-09 Sold (MLS) $170,000 MREIS
• 2022-06-17 Pending — MREIS
• 2022-06-13 Listed $149,900 MREIS
• 2022-01-03 Delisted — MREIS
• 2021-09-02 Relisted — MREIS
• 2021-08-14 Delisted — MREIS
• 2021-08-06 Listed $159,000 MREIS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,322 · +64.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.