222 Road 590108 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$159,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily · 182 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $132/sqft · at area comps Est $166k · at est. $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 59295798 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1417 B1 - Cherokee The Cherokee Plan from our Celebration Series designed two-story layout that balances open main level living with well-separated private spaces upstairs. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,417 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed for comfort, functionality, and everyday ease. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening naturally to the dining and family room for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the living area provides easy access to outdoor enjoyment, while a conveniently located half bath completes the main level. The primary suite is located on one end of the home and includes a private bath and walk-in closet, creating a comfortable retreat.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Patio door
• Outdoor enjoyment

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• BREAKFAST BAR SEATING
• PATIO DOOR
• OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $140,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,182
• List price: $159,990
• Delta: -3.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
381 Lucia Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-0%)	1mo	$172,990	$143	87
378 Lucia Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-0%)	1mo	$174,990	$145	87
385 Lucia Way	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,049 (-13%)	1mo	$170,991	$163	65
382 Lucia Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,033 (-15%)	0mo	$156,990	$152	63
338 Road 5840 Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+11%)	1mo	$172,000	$127	56
662 Road 5846	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,277 (+5%)	6mo	$255,000	$200	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-11,692
• Equity at exit: $23,855

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $13,127
• Equity at exit: $13,833

Cash invested: $44,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,661 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $159,990

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,998
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	1d	1	0.76mi
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	15d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,990 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $159,990 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $163,990 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $163,990 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $163,990 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $163,990 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $163,990 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $163,990 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $163,990 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $163,990 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $163,990 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $163,990 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $163,990 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $163,990 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $168,990 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    MLS# 59295798 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1417 B1 - Cherokee The Cherokee Plan from our Celebration Series designed two-story layout that balances open main level living with well-separated private spaces upstairs. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,417 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed for comfort, functionality, and everyday ease. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening naturally to the dining and family room for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the living area provides easy access to outdoor enjoyment, while a conveniently located half bath completes the main level. The primary suite is located on one end of the home and includes a private bath and walk-in closet, creating a comfortable retreat.

16. 2026-04-23
    price $173,990 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    MLS# 59295798 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1417 B1 - Cherokee The Cherokee Plan from our Celebration Series designed two-story layout that balances open main level living with well-separated private spaces upstairs. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,417 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed for comfort, functionality, and everyday ease. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening naturally to the dining and family room for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the living area provides easy access to outdoor enjoyment, while a conveniently located half bath completes the main level. The primary suite is located on one end of the home and includes a private bath and walk-in closet, creating a comfortable retreat.

17. 2026-03-25
    price $182,990 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    MLS# 59295798 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1417 B1 - Cherokee The Cherokee Plan from our Celebration Series designed two-story layout that balances open main level living with well-separated private spaces upstairs. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,417 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed for comfort, functionality, and everyday ease. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening naturally to the dining and family room for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the living area provides easy access to outdoor enjoyment, while a conveniently located half bath completes the main level. The primary suite is located on one end of the home and includes a private bath and walk-in closet, creating a comfortable retreat.

18. 2026-03-11
    price $187,990 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    MLS# 59295798 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1417 B1 - Cherokee The Cherokee Plan from our Celebration Series designed two-story layout that balances open main level living with well-separated private spaces upstairs. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,417 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed for comfort, functionality, and everyday ease. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening naturally to the dining and family room for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the living area provides easy access to outdoor enjoyment, while a conveniently located half bath completes the main level. The primary suite is located on one end of the home and includes a private bath and walk-in closet, creating a comfortable retreat.

19. 2026-02-12
    price $198,990 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    MLS# 59295798 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1417 B1 - Cherokee The Cherokee Plan from our Celebration Series designed two-story layout that balances open main level living with well-separated private spaces upstairs. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,417 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed for comfort, functionality, and everyday ease. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening naturally to the dining and family room for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the living area provides easy access to outdoor enjoyment, while a conveniently located half bath completes the main level. The primary suite is located on one end of the home and includes a private bath and walk-in closet, creating a comfortable retreat.

20. 2025-12-18
    listed $199,989 Active 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    MLS# 59295798 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1417 B1 - Cherokee The Cherokee Plan from our Celebration Series designed two-story layout that balances open main level living with well-separated private spaces upstairs. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,417 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed for comfort, functionality, and everyday ease. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening naturally to the dining and family room for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the living area provides easy access to outdoor enjoyment, while a conveniently located half bath completes the main level. The primary suite is located on one end of the home and includes a private bath and walk-in closet, creating a comfortable retreat.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,594
• − Management: −$1,594
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,654
• Taxable loss: −$194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$47
• After-tax cash flow: $2,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and offers a great opportunity for both resale and rental value with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can enhance the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the windows to energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient windows can reduce energy costs and improve the home's curb appeal.
• Both Upgrading the roof to a more energy-efficient model — A new roof can improve energy efficiency and reduce maintenance costs.
• Both Upgrading the foundation and structure to meet current building codes — Upgrading the foundation and structure can improve the home's safety and appeal to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can enhance the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the windows to energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient windows can reduce energy costs and improve the home's curb appeal. ↑
• Both Upgrading the roof to a more energy-efficient model — A new roof can improve energy efficiency and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Upgrading the foundation and structure to meet current building codes — Upgrading the foundation and structure can improve the home's safety and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $168,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $173,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $182,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $187,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $198,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $199,989 HARMLS