3 Maple Run · Poinciana, FL 33844

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1979 8,141 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming home located in the desirable community of Sun-Air with NO HOA! From the moment you step through the front door, you are welcomed by a very spacious living room filled with natural light and an inviting open feel. The home offers a comfortable and functional layout with well-sized bedrooms and a generously sized primary suite featuring carpet flooring, a walk-in closet, and a private bathroom complete with a large vanity and walk-in shower. The kitchen is bright and roomy with plenty of cabinet space, stainless steel appliances, and tile flooring, and it overlooks the enclosed back lanai—perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or relaxing in the evenings. A c

Key facts

• Wooded backdrop
• Indoor laundry area
• Two-car garage

Tags

• ENCLOSED BACK LANAI
• WOODED BACKDROP
• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• TWO-CAR GARAGE
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead designation; Unfurnished
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Sprinkler well; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built with public records listing
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Irrigation equipment; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($993/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $250k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,431 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-39,001
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,127
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,221/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,920

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $224	-5% $154	+0% $83	+5% $12	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $3	+0% $83	+5% $163	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $146	base $83	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Buck Cir Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$1,595	$1.20	16d	1	0.27mi
132 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,800	$0.98	25d	1	0.44mi
205 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,100	$1.25	12d	1	0.63mi
205 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,100	$1.25	21d	1	0.63mi
4241 Alamanda Blvd Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,500	$1.27	16d	1	1.23mi
1388 N Platte Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	12d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,900 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    status Active
16. 2026-05-06
    price $249,900
17. 2026-05-04
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-30
    price $252,000
19. 2026-01-30
    listed $255,000 Active
20. 2025-12-20
    historical
21. 2025-09-24
    price $259,000
22. 2025-08-25
    price $265,000
23. 2025-08-06
    price $275,000
24. 2025-07-29
    price $285,000
25. 2025-07-17
    status Active
26. 2025-05-07
    price $292,500
27. 2024-12-09
    listed $300,000 Active
28. 2024-05-06
    historical
29. 2023-12-04
    listed $299,000 Active
30. 2023-01-13
    historical
31. 2022-11-26
    listed $305,900 Active
32. 1998-04-29
    soldstatus $80,000
33. 1979-05-01
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,221 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$853/yr (+$71/mo · 69.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,221
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$800
• After-tax cash flow: $1,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+354.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $252,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $292,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-09 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-04 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-26 Listed $305,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1979-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,221 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.