2477 US ROUTE 5 Unit C-11 · Derby, VT 05829

$92,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2006

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully Maintained 2006 Mobile Home – Like New! This 2006 mobile home is truly a rare find—its condition feels like stepping into brand new. Beautifully maintained and thoughtfully updated, this home offers a fresh, inviting feel the moment you walk through the door. Inside, you’ll find 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a spacious open kitchen/dining area with plenty of room for gatherings. The layout is warm and functional, with updates that bring a modern touch while maintaining the home’s character. Enjoy outdoor living with both a front and back porch, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The property also borders a wide-open green space—a fan

Key facts

• Borders green space
• Front and back porch
• Built 2006

Tags

• SPACIOUS OPEN KITCHEN
• FRONT AND BACK PORCH
• BORDERS GREEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 157 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (107 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($636 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Orleans County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $89,240 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.61%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $71,461
• Equity at exit: $82,881

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.52×
• Total profit: $193,698
• Equity at exit: $178,736

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05829

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 669-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $92,000 Active 57 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $2,717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$652
• After-tax cash flow: $3,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Derby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,600

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,222 people
• By 2030: 25,399 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 23,350 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 21,232 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 16,543 · -36.9%
• By 2100: 11,566 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% German 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.4% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: 27.5pp · 2024: -1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.6 2020: D+4.5 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+24.2 2008: D+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 264.8768
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0