4411 State Route 9G · Germantown, NY 12526

$749,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,479 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1890 1.10 ac lot Est $937k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Perched above a sweeping landscape with jaw-dropping views of the Catskill Mountains (and seasonal Hudson River ones), this classic farmhouse captures the kind of Hudson Valley setting buyers spend years searching for. Offered on two parcels totaling 1.29 acres, the property unfolds as a charming country compound anchored by a timeless white farmhouse, a substantial multi-bay garage, and an adorable garden shed tucked into the landscape. Inside, original hardwood floors, two dining rooms, and a stone fireplace crafted from rocks foraged directly from the property speak to the home's enduring character. A wood-burning stove insert adds warmth and practicality, while thoughtful updates - incl

Key facts

• Stone fireplace
• Adorable garden shed
• 1.1 acre lot

Tags

• TIMELESS WHITE FARMHOUSE
• SUBSTANTIAL MULTI-BAY GARAGE
• ADORABLE GARDEN SHED
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• STONE FIREPLACE
• WOOD-BURNING STOVE INSERT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; Garage with garage door opener; Oversized garage; 8 garage spaces; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Full unfinished basement with Bilco doors; Full pull-down unfinished attic
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Back yard; Level lot; Views; Fenced (other type); Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (oil); Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Built-in features; Chandelier; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Natural woodwork; Original details; Washer/dryer hookup; Casement, double-pane, insulated windows with screens; Covered, screened porch and deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer (laundry located in kitchen); Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $749k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $749k).
• Recommended offer: $738k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#441 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #387 of 755 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Germantown Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 276 students, 41% FRL); Germantown Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #905 of 1,100 statewide, top 83%, 209 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $80k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $75k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $210k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$129k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($738k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $737,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.53%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $937,062
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
56 Main St	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,450 (-1%)	20mo	$925,000	$378	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $658,659
• Equity at exit: $674,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.31×
• Total profit: $1,742,203
• Equity at exit: $1,455,142

Cash invested: $209,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12526

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax from tax record: −$512 /mo · $6,142/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,310
• Net cashflow: $3,938

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,015

Max offer price $749,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,250
• Closing costs: $22,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 E Camp Rd Germantown, NY	3.0	2.0	2624	$11,000	$4.19	21d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $749,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $749,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $749,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $749,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $749,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $749,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $749,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $749,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $749,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $749,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $749,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $749,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,142 · $512/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,400 · $783/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,258/yr (+$271/mo · 53.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $132,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,956
• − Property taxes: −$6,142
• − Insurance: −$3,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,560
• − Management: −$10,560
• − Depreciation: −$21,789
• Taxable income: $37,248
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,940
• After-tax cash flow: $38,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612030
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,242
• Composite: 47.76/100
• National rank: #4894
• State rank: #387 of 755 in NY

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #7728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,427

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.93%
• Current HPI: 511.9627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,142 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.