143 Greenhurst Village Dr · Lakewood, NY 14701

$18,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 854 sqft · Manufactured public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1985 $22/sqft · 28% above area Est $17k · 9% over ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wake up to beautiful views of Chautauqua Lake in this move-in ready and budget-friendly home, where the big-ticket upgrades have already been taken care of for you. Enjoy peace of mind with a metal roof and blown-in insulation (2020), plus a brand new furnace and central air (2025)—keeping you comfortable year-round. Inside, you’ll love the fresh new flooring throughout and a functional layout featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, perfect for easy living or hosting guests. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances included, making your move seamless from day one. Located in the highly desirable Greenhurst Village Mobile Home Park and within the Bemus Point School District, this home offers both community and convenience. The $407/month lot rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, helping keep your monthly expenses predictable and affordable. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence, vacation retreat, or low-maintenance lifestyle near the lake, this is an incredible opportunity to enjoy Chautauqua Lake living at an attainable price point.

Key facts

• Blown-in insulation
• Metal roof
• Brand new furnace

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• BLOWN-IN INSULATION
• BRAND NEW FURNACE
• CENTRAL AIR
• FRESH NEW FLOORING
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $994 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 70.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $128 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $555 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $17,390 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 70.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 230.21%
• DSCR: 11.24
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $17,000
• List price: $18,500
• Delta: 8.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
131 Greenhurst Village Dr	0.04mi	2/1.0	952 (+12%)	0mo	$17,000	$18	75
108 Circle Greenhurst Village Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0	896 (+5%)	16mo	$35,000	$39	69
136 7th Greenhurst Village Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0	980 (+15%)	2mo	$33,000	$34	65
103 Palmer Greenhurst Village Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	980 (+15%)	13mo	$29,000	$30	59
116 Greenhurst Village Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+15%)	11mo	$10,800	$11	58
130 7th St. Greenhurst Village Dr	0.12mi	2/1.5	980 (+15%)	19mo	$23,700	$24	52
139 7th Greenhurst Village Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	980 (+15%)	22mo	$35,000	$36	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.64×
• Total profit: $60,308
• Equity at exit: $2,758

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 26.88×
• Total profit: $134,073
• Equity at exit: $1,600

Cash invested: $5,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14701

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,407 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$97
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $153/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $994

Break-even live

Break-even rent $149

Max offer price $18,500

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,625
• Closing costs: $555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2887 Fluvanna Townline Rd Jamestown, NY	1.0	1.0	820	$1,750	$2.13	43d	1	0.47mi
3779 Heineman Rd Bemus Point, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	43d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1090-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

   Wake up to beautiful views of Chautauqua Lake in this move-in ready and budget-friendly home, where the big-ticket upgrades have already been taken care of for you. Enjoy peace of mind with a metal roof and blown-in insulation (2020), plus a brand new furnace and central air (2025)—keeping you comfortable year-round. Inside, you’ll love the fresh new flooring throughout and a functional layout featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, perfect for easy living or hosting guests. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances included, making your move seamless from day one. Located in the highly desirable Greenhurst Village Mobile Home Park and within the Bemus Point School District, this home offers both community and convenience. The $407/month lot rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, helping keep your monthly expenses predictable and affordable. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence, vacation retreat, or low-maintenance lifestyle near the lake, this is an incredible opportunity to enjoy Chautauqua Lake living at an attainable price point.

2. 2026-05-13
   price $18,500 1090-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

   Wake up to beautiful views of Chautauqua Lake in this move-in ready and budget-friendly home, where the big-ticket upgrades have already been taken care of for you. Enjoy peace of mind with a metal roof and blown-in insulation (2020), plus a brand new furnace and central air (2025)—keeping you comfortable year-round. Inside, you’ll love the fresh new flooring throughout and a functional layout featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, perfect for easy living or hosting guests. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances included, making your move seamless from day one. Located in the highly desirable Greenhurst Village Mobile Home Park and within the Bemus Point School District, this home offers both community and convenience. The $407/month lot rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, helping keep your monthly expenses predictable and affordable. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence, vacation retreat, or low-maintenance lifestyle near the lake, this is an incredible opportunity to enjoy Chautauqua Lake living at an attainable price point.

3. 2026-04-15
   price $22,000 1090-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

   Wake up to beautiful views of Chautauqua Lake in this move-in ready and budget-friendly home, where the big-ticket upgrades have already been taken care of for you. Enjoy peace of mind with a metal roof and blown-in insulation (2020), plus a brand new furnace and central air (2025)—keeping you comfortable year-round. Inside, you’ll love the fresh new flooring throughout and a functional layout featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, perfect for easy living or hosting guests. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances included, making your move seamless from day one. Located in the highly desirable Greenhurst Village Mobile Home Park and within the Bemus Point School District, this home offers both community and convenience. The $407/month lot rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, helping keep your monthly expenses predictable and affordable. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence, vacation retreat, or low-maintenance lifestyle near the lake, this is an incredible opportunity to enjoy Chautauqua Lake living at an attainable price point.

4. 2026-02-18
   listed $24,000 Active 1090-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

   Wake up to beautiful views of Chautauqua Lake in this move-in ready and budget-friendly home, where the big-ticket upgrades have already been taken care of for you. Enjoy peace of mind with a metal roof and blown-in insulation (2020), plus a brand new furnace and central air (2025)—keeping you comfortable year-round. Inside, you’ll love the fresh new flooring throughout and a functional layout featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, perfect for easy living or hosting guests. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances included, making your move seamless from day one. Located in the highly desirable Greenhurst Village Mobile Home Park and within the Bemus Point School District, this home offers both community and convenience. The $407/month lot rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, helping keep your monthly expenses predictable and affordable. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence, vacation retreat, or low-maintenance lifestyle near the lake, this is an incredible opportunity to enjoy Chautauqua Lake living at an attainable price point.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $153 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $233 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 52.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,036
• − Property taxes: −$153
• − Insurance: −$92
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,350
• − Management: −$1,350
• − Depreciation: −$538
• Taxable income: $12,358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,966
• After-tax cash flow: $8,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chautauqua County · 38,461 people
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,461
• Household income: $49,685
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.93%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-22.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $18,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $22,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $24,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $153 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.