1870 E Grand Ave · Hot Springs, AR 71901

$62,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1994

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious double wide home located at Combs Mobile Home Park. Lot rent is $300 per month which includes lawncare. Great house, great community, great location. Close to downtown Hot Springs.

Key facts

• Double wide home
• Lawncare included
• Built 1994

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE HOME
• COMBS MOBILE HOME PARK
• LAWNCARE INCLUDED
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN HOT SPRINGS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $62,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$160,512) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $659 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cutter-Morning Star School District (rural): math 27% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #159 of 238 in AR (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cutter-Morning Star Elem. Sch. (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #229 of 454 statewide, top 54%, 356 students, 71% FRL); Cutter-Morning Star High Sch. (math 13% / reading 29%, grade F, #228 of 292 statewide, top 79%, 334 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,625 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.21%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,512
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 Mill Creek Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	924 (-12%)	22mo	$140,000	$152	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $31,867
• Equity at exit: $9,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $81,822
• Equity at exit: $5,404

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71901

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $529/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $659

Break-even live

Break-even rent $504

Max offer price $62,500

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $695	-5% $677	+0% $659	+5% $642	+10% $624
Rent	-10% $554	-5% $607	+0% $659	+5% $712	+10% $765
Rate	-1.0pp $691	-0.5pp $675	base $659	+0.5pp $643	+1.0pp $627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 Hig Fry Rd Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,400	$1.74	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $62,500 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $62,500 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,500 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,500 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   price $62,500 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,500 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,500 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $67,500 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,500 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $67,500 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $67,500 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $67,500 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,500 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $67,500 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,500 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,500 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,500 Active 20 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,500 Active 19 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $67,500 Active 18 DOM
20. 2026-05-12
    listed $67,500 Active 189-char remark
21. 2014-11-05
    historical
22. 2014-09-03
    listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $529 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $529 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$529
• − Insurance: −$312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable income: $7,329
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,759
• After-tax cash flow: $6,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cutter-Morning Star School District
• NCES district ID: 0504860
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,404
• Composite: 24.45/100
• National rank: #7667
• State rank: #159 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 28,937
• Household income: $53,514
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 961.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.75%
• Current HPI: 317.2542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $62,500 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $67,500 FSBO.com
• 2014-11-05 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2014-09-03 Listed $15,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $529 · +64.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.