1530 Amy Dr · Newcastle, CA 95658

$174,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 76 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $172k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Castle City Mobile Home Park, where you can experience peaceful country living in a vibrant 55+ rent-controlled community. This 1997 double-wide manufactured home is 1,344 sq. feet and features 2 bedrooms, a den & 2 full baths. There is a formal living room, a dining area off of the kitchen, and a breakfast nook. The refrigerator is included, along with the washer and dryer in the laundry room. The primary bedroom features a walk-in closet & a large bathroom with a stall shower. The guest bath has a shower over the tub. Enclosed 8 x 20 front deck, with a small patio and grassy area on the side of the home behind the deck. New space rent will be $842.39, which includes

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Walk-in closet
• Formal living room

Tags

• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA OFF KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENCLOSED FRONT DECK
• SMALL PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is not land-leased (land lease listed separately); Land lease amount provided separately
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available; No enclosed garage (carport/attached cover)
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Internet available; Public sewer; Private water
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Double wide; Karsten Villa (Karsten Co); Built in 1997
• Construction: Composition roof; Vinyl skirting
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Shed(s); Auto sprinkler front and rear; Front yard; Landscaped front and back; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Pantry cabinet; Breakfast area; Laminate counter; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3rd bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s); Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Dual-pane full windows; Enclosed deck; Uncovered patio; Den, dining room, sun room, living room, master bedroom, kitchen, laundry
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside; Electric and gas hook-up for laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $808 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 1.6% in Newcastle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#792 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,560 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.54%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,032
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6060 Nob Hl	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	24mo	$160,000	$119	79
6074 Coleman Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,180 (-12%)	3mo	$185,000	$157	74
6374 Brodie Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,472 (+10%)	2mo	$169,500	$115	70
1911 Hillcrest Dr #067	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$147,500	$102	66
6536 Crest Dr #57	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	13mo	$184,792	$128	64
1755 Sunset Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	14mo	$130,000	$108	63
1962 Hillcrest Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	15mo	$186,000	$129	63
6503 Lake Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	19mo	$225,000	$156	62
6556 Crest Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	22mo	$162,500	$135	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $23,353
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $86,935
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95658

• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$218 /mo · $2,610/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $808

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $174,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 58 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$2,610
• − Insurance: −$1,667
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,524
• − Management: −$2,524
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable income: $7,416
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,780
• After-tax cash flow: $7,917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placer Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,119
• Composite: 49.04/100
• National rank: #2060
• State rank: #98 of 517 in CA

Livability — Newcastle

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #792
• US rank: #22660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newcastle, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,197

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -292.40%
• Current HPI: 288.3247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B