1564 County Route 12 · Sand Ridge, NY 13036

$147,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1985 1.33 ac lot $123/sqft · 28% below area Est $206k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this ranch home set on a private 1.33-acre lot in the Central Square School District, offering a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Approximately 1,200 sq ft of living space with a walkout basement, providing excellent storage or future finishing potential. A huge, detached garage offers ample space for vehicles, equipment, or workshop use. Peaceful, rural setting with room to spread out while still being conveniently located. Property needs work and is being sold AS IS.

Key facts

• Walkout basement
• Private lot
• Rural setting

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• RURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $837 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.4% in Sand Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#926 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Central Square Central School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $143,075 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.33%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,759
• List price: $147,500
• Delta: -28.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $133,767
• Equity at exit: $132,880

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.53×
• Total profit: $352,209
• Equity at exit: $286,560

Cash invested: $41,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13036

• Home prices YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,634/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $147,500

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,875
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Manhattan Park Dr Pennellville, NY	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	44d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,500 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,500 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,500 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,500 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,500 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $147,500 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,500 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,500 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $147,500 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,500 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $147,500 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,500 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,500 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,500 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    status Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Come check out this ranch home set on a private 1.33-acre lot in the Central Square School District, offering a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Approximately 1,200 sq ft of living space with a walkout basement, providing excellent storage or future finishing potential. A huge, detached garage offers ample space for vehicles, equipment, or workshop use. Peaceful, rural setting with room to spread out while still being conveniently located. Property needs work and is being sold AS IS.

16. 2026-02-27
    status Pending 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Come check out this ranch home set on a private 1.33-acre lot in the Central Square School District, offering a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Approximately 1,200 sq ft of living space with a walkout basement, providing excellent storage or future finishing potential. A huge, detached garage offers ample space for vehicles, equipment, or workshop use. Peaceful, rural setting with room to spread out while still being conveniently located. Property needs work and is being sold AS IS.

17. 2026-02-13
    listed $147,500 Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Come check out this ranch home set on a private 1.33-acre lot in the Central Square School District, offering a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Approximately 1,200 sq ft of living space with a walkout basement, providing excellent storage or future finishing potential. A huge, detached garage offers ample space for vehicles, equipment, or workshop use. Peaceful, rural setting with room to spread out while still being conveniently located. Property needs work and is being sold AS IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,634 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,634 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$3,634
• − Insurance: −$738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable income: $8,276
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,986
• After-tax cash flow: $8,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Square Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606900
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,807
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5035
• State rank: #507 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sand Ridge

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #926
• US rank: #18073

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,079

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.27%
• Current HPI: 318.5068
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-02-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $147,500 CNYIS

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,634 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.